With two weeks of NFL action in the books, we’ve seen quite a wide range of quarterback talent on display. On one end of the spectrum are the known commodities like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, who have been going scorched earth on the league and cementing their status as being in a tier of their own. Per RBSDM, Mahomes and Allen are first and second in EPA/play among quarterbacks with marks of 0.479 and 0.476, respectively; the next-closest quarterback has an EPA/play of 0.360 (more on him soon!).
More intriguing, however, is the play from the quarterbacks with chips on their shoulders. I could gush about players like Allen and Mahomes for pages and pages, but “Guys Who You Know Are Good at Football Continue to Be Good at Football” reads almost like a headline from The Onion. So instead I’d like to focus on the passers with points to prove-- let’s discuss those who are silencing their doubters, and those who are playing their way out of employment.
Trending Up:
Tua Tagovailoa:
Tua was perhaps the story of Week 2. After a 79-yard Lamar Jackson rushing touchdown put the Ravens up 35-14 on Miami in the fourth quarter, the game should have been over. Instead, Tagovailoa led the Dolphins on four straight touchdown drives to win the game 42-38. Tua finished with an astounding 469 yards and 6 touchdowns on a 72.0% completion clip.
Following this stunning comeback, Tua is now third in EPA/play, sixth in Completion Percentage over Average (CPOE), third in EPA+CPOE composite, and sixth in Success Rate (the percentage of plays with a positive EPA), according to RBSDM. He’s currently the league’s passing yard leader by almost 90 yards, ranks fourth in yards per attempt, and is second only to Josh Allen in ESPN’s Total QBR metric. Most importantly, the Dolphins now stand at 2-0 with wins over the Patriots and the Ravens.
Tua Tagovailoa had a career day in a win at Baltimore. Photo from: South Florida Sun Sentinel.
That’s not to say that Tua has erased all of his deficiencies as a quarterback in the NFL, necessarily. He threw two ugly interceptions against Baltimore which contributed to his team being in such a deep hole to begin with. He also still throws the occasional duck that Twitter can poke fun at, and his arm strength leaves something to be desired; even some of his successful deep shots on Sunday were major underthrows which benefited from busted coverage in the secondary.
New head coach Mike McDaniel has clearly implemented a system that Tua can thrive in, a breath of fresh air from the suffocating offense that he’s had to work with in his first two years in the league. He has time to throw, and the game is being simplified for him. Furthermore, Jaylen Waddle and the newcomer Tyreek Hill are showing that, yes, it is in fact helpful to have perhaps the two fastest men in professional football at wide receiver. Waddle and Hill consistently burned an ailing Ravens secondary, and Dolphins receivers in general had a jolly time creating separation from defenders:
I don’t say this to discredit Tua entirely. He entered this league as a prospect with injury concerns and a limited arm, but with accuracy so potent as to be able to mask his deficiencies entirely. His limitations are still popping up on tape here and there, but McDaniel is doing an exceptional job of leveraging Tua’s abilities. I had Miami as a borderline playoff team this season, but it may be time to think of the Dolphins as one of the favorites in the Wild Card race as some of the other AFC contenders struggle. If he plays well in January, Tua might finally earn a second contract and the trust of fans that has been so lacking in his young career.
Lamar Jackson:
On the other side of Tagovailoa’s theatrics on Sunday was Lamar Jackson. Currently locked in a dispute with Baltimore’s brass over the negotiations of his second contract, Jackson’s unbelievable game could have been the story of the week as he aims to control the narrative in a contract year. Instead, his heroics became somewhat lost in the fallout of an all-time defensive collapse by the Ravens.
Still, it is important to recognize the step forward that Jackson is once again taking in his career. After being told he was a gadget runningback-at-quarterback type player, Jackson led the league in passing touchdowns in 2019 en route to a unanimous MVP. Then after being told he could not throw outside the numbers, Jackson did this last season:
However, previous iterations of Lamar Jackson were not without limitations in their games. Going into this season, it was clear he could benefit from more consistency in his accuracy, from a more successful deep ball, and from a better ability to handle blitzes that flummoxed him last year. So far in 2022, he’s addressing these concerns with aplomb. His spiral looks tighter, his accuracy metrics are better, he’s been launching deep touchdowns across both games, and the very same Zero Blitz that shut down the Ravens’ offense last season was mostly a non-factor on Sunday.
Against Miami, he finished 21/29 for 318 yards and 3 TDs, while also adding 119 yards and 1 TD on the ground. Adding texture to that passing performance is the fact that his best receivers, counterintuitively, actually somewhat struggled to gain quality separation against their defenders all day:
Trending Down:
Kirk Cousins:
Following yet another clunker in a primetime game, Cousins has fallen to 10-18 under the bright lights, including a dismal 2-10 record on Monday Night Football (maybe ESPN’s strange animations put him off). Add in the fact that he has just two playoff appearances through about a decade in the league and only one playoff win, and his future in Minnesota becomes murky.
After being handed the then-highest guaranteed money in a contract in NFL history, Kirk Cousins has yet to establish himself as anything other than a slightly-above-average quarterback, let alone a potential leader to a Lombardi Trophy. He historically struggles in high-leverage situations on top of his primetime woes; Cousins’ EPA per passing attempt over the last seven years ranks 30th when trailing with 10 or less minutes to go, and 25th in third-and-long situations, according to Arif Hasan of The Athletic.
After a stellar Week 1 performance where he torched a soft Packers zone defense, Cousins had a much tougher time against an Eagles secondary which employed the bold strategy of not allowing Jefferson to be completely wide open. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jefferson had an average of 3.98 yards of separation against Green Bay last week -- over a full yard above the league average of 2.91 -- but averaged just 2.44 on Monday due to some excellent coverage from Darius Slay. Without his star receiver being open consistently, Cousins struggled to read the field. He ended with three interceptions and averaged under 5 yards per pass attempt.
The Vikings cannot afford a talent like Jefferson to walk, and if Kirk can’t get it together this season it may finally be time to move on from him and find a quarterback better suited to maximize their star receiver.
Matt Ryan:
I picked the Colts to win the AFC South this season almost purely on the basis that Matt Ryan will return to form behind a solid offensive line and with a much more talented roster than Atlanta’s has been over the past few years. Instead, Ryan has been making the argument himself that his time as a quality starter in the league is over.
Matt Ryan has struggled through two games with the Colts. Photo from: Mike Carlson/Getty Images.
Among quarterbacks who have started both games this season, Ryan ranks dead last in EPA/play, per RBSDM. He struggled mightily for much of the game against a mediocre Texans defense before finally waking up and leading Indianapolis to a tie (yay?). In Jacksonville on Sunday, Ryan finished 16/30 for 195 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. For what it’s worth, the Colts have now failed to win on the road versus the Jaguars for the eighth year running, so perhaps there’s a bigger curse at play here.
In all seriousness, there were some factors going against Ryan in this game. Michael Pittman Jr., easily the Colts’ best wideout, missed the game with a quad injury, and the other receivers on the team routinely struggled to create consistent separation from defenders:
A negative game script also meant that Indianapolis could not control the game on the legs of Jonathan Taylor. Still, Matt Ryan’s pedigree as a borderline Hall-of-Famer says that he should be the type of player that can boost his team when not everything around him is going right. So far, we have yet to see an indication that Ryan, now 37, is still capable of such heroics at this point in his career.
With Mahomes and the Chiefs coming to town next week, and with matchups against Tennessee (twice), Denver, and Jacksonville following that, Indianapolis could find themselves in a deep hole to start the year. Can Matt Ryan still be the guy to dig them out?
Baker Mayfield:
Part of me really did want Baker to revive his career in Carolina. Mayfield, however, has done nothing of the sort through two weeks as a Panther. Though he came close to exacting sweet revenge against his former employer in Week 1, Cleveland ultimately came away with the win. The Panthers then fell to the Giants in a 19-16 snoozefest on Sunday, dropping Carolina to 0-2 with losses to Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones at quarterback.
Mayfield’s accuracy -- the one piece of his game that has elite potential in this league -- has yet to be seen in 2022; among quarterbacks that have played two full games this season, Mayfield’s CPOE ranks dead last. This is despite the fact that his average depth of target is 21st among all qualified passers. His EPA+CPOE composite also ranks dead last among quarterbacks who have played two full games. Pick any metric you want: raw completion %, total yards, total QBR, passer rating, or something else, and Mayfield is in the bottom tier of it. He’s got plays on tape like this:
Mayfield could benefit from stronger play from his offensive line and from a more creative offensive playbook, but he continues to be unable to feel the pocket and to use his mobility effectively. His bad habits are still apparent, and his accuracy has waned, despite having D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey at his disposal. The Panthers as a whole have a lot they need to figure out, but if Mayfield continues to play at this level he may not get another shot as a starting QB in the league anytime soon. ■
More intriguing, however, is the play from the quarterbacks with chips on their shoulders. I could gush about players like Allen and Mahomes for pages and pages, but “Guys Who You Know Are Good at Football Continue to Be Good at Football” reads almost like a headline from The Onion. So instead I’d like to focus on the passers with points to prove-- let’s discuss those who are silencing their doubters, and those who are playing their way out of employment.
Trending Up:
Tua Tagovailoa:
Tua was perhaps the story of Week 2. After a 79-yard Lamar Jackson rushing touchdown put the Ravens up 35-14 on Miami in the fourth quarter, the game should have been over. Instead, Tagovailoa led the Dolphins on four straight touchdown drives to win the game 42-38. Tua finished with an astounding 469 yards and 6 touchdowns on a 72.0% completion clip.
Following this stunning comeback, Tua is now third in EPA/play, sixth in Completion Percentage over Average (CPOE), third in EPA+CPOE composite, and sixth in Success Rate (the percentage of plays with a positive EPA), according to RBSDM. He’s currently the league’s passing yard leader by almost 90 yards, ranks fourth in yards per attempt, and is second only to Josh Allen in ESPN’s Total QBR metric. Most importantly, the Dolphins now stand at 2-0 with wins over the Patriots and the Ravens.
Tua Tagovailoa had a career day in a win at Baltimore. Photo from: South Florida Sun Sentinel.
That’s not to say that Tua has erased all of his deficiencies as a quarterback in the NFL, necessarily. He threw two ugly interceptions against Baltimore which contributed to his team being in such a deep hole to begin with. He also still throws the occasional duck that Twitter can poke fun at, and his arm strength leaves something to be desired; even some of his successful deep shots on Sunday were major underthrows which benefited from busted coverage in the secondary.
New head coach Mike McDaniel has clearly implemented a system that Tua can thrive in, a breath of fresh air from the suffocating offense that he’s had to work with in his first two years in the league. He has time to throw, and the game is being simplified for him. Furthermore, Jaylen Waddle and the newcomer Tyreek Hill are showing that, yes, it is in fact helpful to have perhaps the two fastest men in professional football at wide receiver. Waddle and Hill consistently burned an ailing Ravens secondary, and Dolphins receivers in general had a jolly time creating separation from defenders:
I don’t say this to discredit Tua entirely. He entered this league as a prospect with injury concerns and a limited arm, but with accuracy so potent as to be able to mask his deficiencies entirely. His limitations are still popping up on tape here and there, but McDaniel is doing an exceptional job of leveraging Tua’s abilities. I had Miami as a borderline playoff team this season, but it may be time to think of the Dolphins as one of the favorites in the Wild Card race as some of the other AFC contenders struggle. If he plays well in January, Tua might finally earn a second contract and the trust of fans that has been so lacking in his young career.
Lamar Jackson:
On the other side of Tagovailoa’s theatrics on Sunday was Lamar Jackson. Currently locked in a dispute with Baltimore’s brass over the negotiations of his second contract, Jackson’s unbelievable game could have been the story of the week as he aims to control the narrative in a contract year. Instead, his heroics became somewhat lost in the fallout of an all-time defensive collapse by the Ravens.
Still, it is important to recognize the step forward that Jackson is once again taking in his career. After being told he was a gadget runningback-at-quarterback type player, Jackson led the league in passing touchdowns in 2019 en route to a unanimous MVP. Then after being told he could not throw outside the numbers, Jackson did this last season:
Lamar Jackson early down passing outside the numbers:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 2, 2022
#1 in YPA (9.2)
#1 in success rate (57%)
#1 in EPA/att (+0.33)
this on 117 attempts last year while averaging 9.4 air yards per attempt (5th highest) & being blitzed on 32% of attempts (5th highest) pic.twitter.com/iZmqCOgmfU
However, previous iterations of Lamar Jackson were not without limitations in their games. Going into this season, it was clear he could benefit from more consistency in his accuracy, from a more successful deep ball, and from a better ability to handle blitzes that flummoxed him last year. So far in 2022, he’s addressing these concerns with aplomb. His spiral looks tighter, his accuracy metrics are better, he’s been launching deep touchdowns across both games, and the very same Zero Blitz that shut down the Ravens’ offense last season was mostly a non-factor on Sunday.
Against Miami, he finished 21/29 for 318 yards and 3 TDs, while also adding 119 yards and 1 TD on the ground. Adding texture to that passing performance is the fact that his best receivers, counterintuitively, actually somewhat struggled to gain quality separation against their defenders all day:
Pure passing metrics that previously have been unkind to Jackson now look upon him favorably: he ranks second in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, and fourth in Total QBR. The advanced stats look great too, as he ranks first in Adjusted Yards per pass attempt and first in Adjusted Net Yards per pass attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference, and fourth in EPA/play per RBSDM.
All of this is despite Jackson being one of the more risk-taking passers in the NFL. He ranks first in Intended Air Yards per attempt in the league and is tied for first in average depth of target beyond the line of scrimmage, yet sports a positive CPOE -- his mark of 1.6 in that metric currently ranks twelfth, higher than Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Joe Burrow, to name a few.
Baltimore is currently without starting left tackle and former first-team All Pro Ronnie Stanley, as well as their top two running backs in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. With a tandem of Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake in the backfield, Jackson also has had to shoulder the load of being the team’s entire running game. While he bulked up over the offseason, Lamar still has his trademark speed; he scampered for a 79-yard touchdown score against the Dolphins, a run which according to Next Gen Stats had an expected gain of 2 yards. If Jackson continues to play like this, he’ll put himself in the MVP conversation once again-- and Baltimore may have no choice but to meet his contract demands.
Jalen Hurts:
Hurts entered this season with perhaps the most to prove among all quarterbacks in the league. Despite leading Philadelphia to a playoff appearance last season, concerns about Hurts’ accuracy and style of play were loudly proclaimed all summer after a disastrous Wild Card game against Tampa Bay that essentially served as a showcase for his limitations as a passer. General manager Howie Roseman did a fine job this offseason improving the roster across the board, but most importantly he bolstered the nucleus of talent around Hurts to give him a chance to show his worth.
So far, Hurts has been showing his worth, indeed. He’s continuing to use his elite rushing talent as his game-changing advantage -- Hurts has rushed 28 times for 147 yards and three scores across two games -- but has improved his abilities as a pure passer as well. This was on full display Monday night against Minnesota, where he completed 26 of 31 passes for 333 yards and 1 TD. Though he also threw his first pick of the season in that game, Hurts looked by far the most comfortable on tape as a quarterback as he ever has in the NFL, and the football world took notice.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles dominated in a 24-7 win on Monday. Photo from: Getty Images.
Hurts’ performance against the Vikings was the most accurate ever for a quarterback who ran for two scores, which speaks to his top-tier dual-threat status. My favorite source for evaluating quarterbacks, RBSDM, also paints Hurts in a good light; he ranks seventh in EPA/play and tenth in CPOE, giving him the seventh-best EPA+CPOE composite in the league. The only other QBs above him are either also mentioned in the “Trending Up” section of this piece or are named Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Justin Herbert.
The rapport between Hurts and his new WR1, A.J. Brown, seems to be strong, and between Brown, former first-round pick DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert, Hurts is both able and willing to spread the ball around the field. Furthermore, running back Miles Sanders creates a danger on read-option run plays, and the entire offense is anchored by perhaps the best offensive line in the entire NFL. Philadelphia’s offense flipped a switch by leaning on the running game in the second half of last season en route to their playoff appearance; head coach Nick Sirianni seems to have built on that momentum with the new talent in the building.
Jalen Hurts has consistently improved with each season of his career, dating back to his pre-NFL days. Still only 24, if he plays at this level all season he may, finally, leave no doubt as to being the long-term answer of his team. What’s more, with Dak Prescott sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Eagles have a chance to run away with the NFC East and could be poised for a deep playoff run in a weakened NFC. I’m buying lots of Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia Eagles stock this year.
Trevor Lawrence:
Last year’s first overall pick entered the NFL with impossible expectations. Widely crowned as one of the greatest college quarterback prospects of all time, Lawrence was expected to hit the ground running in Jacksonville last season. Instead, his rookie season was disappointingly pedestrian; he somehow ranked 35th in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite, was third-worst among starters in completion percentage, and threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.
Consider, however, the fact that Urban Meyer was his head coach, and a lot can be forgiven. Furthermore, Lawrence had one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL last year as well as a below-average offensive line. This season, Doug Pederson -- a former Super Bowl champion -- entered Jacksonville as the team’s head coach, immediately bringing much-needed sanity and professionalism to a beleaguered franchise. More importantly, he’s bringing some good football, too.
Pederson previously helped engineer an MVP-caliber sophomore season from Carson Wentz in 2017, so he’s no stranger to nurturing young quarterbacks. His RPO-heavy scheme simplifies the game for quarterbacks and asks them to play a lot less “hero ball”, something that Lawrence desperately needed in his offensive scheme. The talent around Lawrence improved, too-- they added two offensive line starters in Brandon Scherff and Luke Fortner over the offseason, and while newly-acquired wide receiver Christian Kirk’s contract was the subject of ridicule all summer (and may have caused the departure of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams from their teams), he did bring an instant improvement and a burst of speed to the receiver room. What’s more, his rapport with Lawrence seems to be strong already.
Trevor Lawrence threw two touchdowns to Christian Kirk on Sunday. Photo from: USA Today Sports.
Through two games, Kirk has 12 catches for 195 yards and connected with Lawrence for two scores in their dominant win over Indianapolis. The play for Kirk’s second touchdown was a delightful designed rollout on a 4th-and-1 to essentially seal the game-- a small, refreshing, piece of creativity that was so devoid in Meyer’s offense last season. Lawrence’s protection has also improved as well, as he currently has the eighth-highest Pocket Time -- the average time between the snap and pressure or a throw -- in the entire league, per FantasyPros.
His passing charts on Next Gen Stats tell this story of a simplified game, an ability to read all areas of the field, and improved accuracy:
As a result of the improved scheme and personnel around Lawrence, his talent is beginning to shine through, and his potential for elite production and efficiency is becoming clear. This season, he currently ranks fourth in the league in EPA+CPOE composite, including third in CPOE with a still-impressive 8.3-yard average depth of target, good for ninth-highest in the league.
He’s still got a ways to go to reach his multi-MVP, “generational” potential that was so highly touted during his days as a prospect, but the underlying stats now show strong accuracy and production while still keeping his eyes downfield. Lawrence’s tape also shows awareness in the pocket, and his physical tools, including his mobility to extend plays, has never been in question. I’m betting on steady improvement from Lawrence all season, and with that, the plucky Jaguars might actually have an outside shot to win a muddied AFC South.
All of this is despite Jackson being one of the more risk-taking passers in the NFL. He ranks first in Intended Air Yards per attempt in the league and is tied for first in average depth of target beyond the line of scrimmage, yet sports a positive CPOE -- his mark of 1.6 in that metric currently ranks twelfth, higher than Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Joe Burrow, to name a few.
Baltimore is currently without starting left tackle and former first-team All Pro Ronnie Stanley, as well as their top two running backs in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. With a tandem of Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake in the backfield, Jackson also has had to shoulder the load of being the team’s entire running game. While he bulked up over the offseason, Lamar still has his trademark speed; he scampered for a 79-yard touchdown score against the Dolphins, a run which according to Next Gen Stats had an expected gain of 2 yards. If Jackson continues to play like this, he’ll put himself in the MVP conversation once again-- and Baltimore may have no choice but to meet his contract demands.
Jalen Hurts:
Hurts entered this season with perhaps the most to prove among all quarterbacks in the league. Despite leading Philadelphia to a playoff appearance last season, concerns about Hurts’ accuracy and style of play were loudly proclaimed all summer after a disastrous Wild Card game against Tampa Bay that essentially served as a showcase for his limitations as a passer. General manager Howie Roseman did a fine job this offseason improving the roster across the board, but most importantly he bolstered the nucleus of talent around Hurts to give him a chance to show his worth.
So far, Hurts has been showing his worth, indeed. He’s continuing to use his elite rushing talent as his game-changing advantage -- Hurts has rushed 28 times for 147 yards and three scores across two games -- but has improved his abilities as a pure passer as well. This was on full display Monday night against Minnesota, where he completed 26 of 31 passes for 333 yards and 1 TD. Though he also threw his first pick of the season in that game, Hurts looked by far the most comfortable on tape as a quarterback as he ever has in the NFL, and the football world took notice.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles dominated in a 24-7 win on Monday. Photo from: Getty Images.
Hurts’ performance against the Vikings was the most accurate ever for a quarterback who ran for two scores, which speaks to his top-tier dual-threat status. My favorite source for evaluating quarterbacks, RBSDM, also paints Hurts in a good light; he ranks seventh in EPA/play and tenth in CPOE, giving him the seventh-best EPA+CPOE composite in the league. The only other QBs above him are either also mentioned in the “Trending Up” section of this piece or are named Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Justin Herbert.
The rapport between Hurts and his new WR1, A.J. Brown, seems to be strong, and between Brown, former first-round pick DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert, Hurts is both able and willing to spread the ball around the field. Furthermore, running back Miles Sanders creates a danger on read-option run plays, and the entire offense is anchored by perhaps the best offensive line in the entire NFL. Philadelphia’s offense flipped a switch by leaning on the running game in the second half of last season en route to their playoff appearance; head coach Nick Sirianni seems to have built on that momentum with the new talent in the building.
Jalen Hurts has consistently improved with each season of his career, dating back to his pre-NFL days. Still only 24, if he plays at this level all season he may, finally, leave no doubt as to being the long-term answer of his team. What’s more, with Dak Prescott sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Eagles have a chance to run away with the NFC East and could be poised for a deep playoff run in a weakened NFC. I’m buying lots of Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia Eagles stock this year.
Trevor Lawrence:
Last year’s first overall pick entered the NFL with impossible expectations. Widely crowned as one of the greatest college quarterback prospects of all time, Lawrence was expected to hit the ground running in Jacksonville last season. Instead, his rookie season was disappointingly pedestrian; he somehow ranked 35th in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite, was third-worst among starters in completion percentage, and threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.
Consider, however, the fact that Urban Meyer was his head coach, and a lot can be forgiven. Furthermore, Lawrence had one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL last year as well as a below-average offensive line. This season, Doug Pederson -- a former Super Bowl champion -- entered Jacksonville as the team’s head coach, immediately bringing much-needed sanity and professionalism to a beleaguered franchise. More importantly, he’s bringing some good football, too.
Pederson previously helped engineer an MVP-caliber sophomore season from Carson Wentz in 2017, so he’s no stranger to nurturing young quarterbacks. His RPO-heavy scheme simplifies the game for quarterbacks and asks them to play a lot less “hero ball”, something that Lawrence desperately needed in his offensive scheme. The talent around Lawrence improved, too-- they added two offensive line starters in Brandon Scherff and Luke Fortner over the offseason, and while newly-acquired wide receiver Christian Kirk’s contract was the subject of ridicule all summer (and may have caused the departure of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams from their teams), he did bring an instant improvement and a burst of speed to the receiver room. What’s more, his rapport with Lawrence seems to be strong already.
Trevor Lawrence threw two touchdowns to Christian Kirk on Sunday. Photo from: USA Today Sports.
Through two games, Kirk has 12 catches for 195 yards and connected with Lawrence for two scores in their dominant win over Indianapolis. The play for Kirk’s second touchdown was a delightful designed rollout on a 4th-and-1 to essentially seal the game-- a small, refreshing, piece of creativity that was so devoid in Meyer’s offense last season. Lawrence’s protection has also improved as well, as he currently has the eighth-highest Pocket Time -- the average time between the snap and pressure or a throw -- in the entire league, per FantasyPros.
His passing charts on Next Gen Stats tell this story of a simplified game, an ability to read all areas of the field, and improved accuracy:
As a result of the improved scheme and personnel around Lawrence, his talent is beginning to shine through, and his potential for elite production and efficiency is becoming clear. This season, he currently ranks fourth in the league in EPA+CPOE composite, including third in CPOE with a still-impressive 8.3-yard average depth of target, good for ninth-highest in the league.
He’s still got a ways to go to reach his multi-MVP, “generational” potential that was so highly touted during his days as a prospect, but the underlying stats now show strong accuracy and production while still keeping his eyes downfield. Lawrence’s tape also shows awareness in the pocket, and his physical tools, including his mobility to extend plays, has never been in question. I’m betting on steady improvement from Lawrence all season, and with that, the plucky Jaguars might actually have an outside shot to win a muddied AFC South.
Trending Down:
Kirk Cousins:
Following yet another clunker in a primetime game, Cousins has fallen to 10-18 under the bright lights, including a dismal 2-10 record on Monday Night Football (maybe ESPN’s strange animations put him off). Add in the fact that he has just two playoff appearances through about a decade in the league and only one playoff win, and his future in Minnesota becomes murky.
After being handed the then-highest guaranteed money in a contract in NFL history, Kirk Cousins has yet to establish himself as anything other than a slightly-above-average quarterback, let alone a potential leader to a Lombardi Trophy. He historically struggles in high-leverage situations on top of his primetime woes; Cousins’ EPA per passing attempt over the last seven years ranks 30th when trailing with 10 or less minutes to go, and 25th in third-and-long situations, according to Arif Hasan of The Athletic.
After a stellar Week 1 performance where he torched a soft Packers zone defense, Cousins had a much tougher time against an Eagles secondary which employed the bold strategy of not allowing Jefferson to be completely wide open. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jefferson had an average of 3.98 yards of separation against Green Bay last week -- over a full yard above the league average of 2.91 -- but averaged just 2.44 on Monday due to some excellent coverage from Darius Slay. Without his star receiver being open consistently, Cousins struggled to read the field. He ended with three interceptions and averaged under 5 yards per pass attempt.
The Vikings cannot afford a talent like Jefferson to walk, and if Kirk can’t get it together this season it may finally be time to move on from him and find a quarterback better suited to maximize their star receiver.
Matt Ryan:
I picked the Colts to win the AFC South this season almost purely on the basis that Matt Ryan will return to form behind a solid offensive line and with a much more talented roster than Atlanta’s has been over the past few years. Instead, Ryan has been making the argument himself that his time as a quality starter in the league is over.
Matt Ryan has struggled through two games with the Colts. Photo from: Mike Carlson/Getty Images.
Among quarterbacks who have started both games this season, Ryan ranks dead last in EPA/play, per RBSDM. He struggled mightily for much of the game against a mediocre Texans defense before finally waking up and leading Indianapolis to a tie (yay?). In Jacksonville on Sunday, Ryan finished 16/30 for 195 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. For what it’s worth, the Colts have now failed to win on the road versus the Jaguars for the eighth year running, so perhaps there’s a bigger curse at play here.
In all seriousness, there were some factors going against Ryan in this game. Michael Pittman Jr., easily the Colts’ best wideout, missed the game with a quad injury, and the other receivers on the team routinely struggled to create consistent separation from defenders:
A negative game script also meant that Indianapolis could not control the game on the legs of Jonathan Taylor. Still, Matt Ryan’s pedigree as a borderline Hall-of-Famer says that he should be the type of player that can boost his team when not everything around him is going right. So far, we have yet to see an indication that Ryan, now 37, is still capable of such heroics at this point in his career.
With Mahomes and the Chiefs coming to town next week, and with matchups against Tennessee (twice), Denver, and Jacksonville following that, Indianapolis could find themselves in a deep hole to start the year. Can Matt Ryan still be the guy to dig them out?
Baker Mayfield:
Part of me really did want Baker to revive his career in Carolina. Mayfield, however, has done nothing of the sort through two weeks as a Panther. Though he came close to exacting sweet revenge against his former employer in Week 1, Cleveland ultimately came away with the win. The Panthers then fell to the Giants in a 19-16 snoozefest on Sunday, dropping Carolina to 0-2 with losses to Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones at quarterback.
Mayfield’s accuracy -- the one piece of his game that has elite potential in this league -- has yet to be seen in 2022; among quarterbacks that have played two full games this season, Mayfield’s CPOE ranks dead last. This is despite the fact that his average depth of target is 21st among all qualified passers. His EPA+CPOE composite also ranks dead last among quarterbacks who have played two full games. Pick any metric you want: raw completion %, total yards, total QBR, passer rating, or something else, and Mayfield is in the bottom tier of it. He’s got plays on tape like this:
My guy.. what the actual ... I mean this pocket is literally as clean as it can be for Baker Mayfield.
— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) September 20, 2022
The decision, the ball placement. As I said, Daniel Jones gave the #Giants a clear advantage at the QB position in this game and it wasn't particularly close. pic.twitter.com/QFrNThblrY
Mayfield could benefit from stronger play from his offensive line and from a more creative offensive playbook, but he continues to be unable to feel the pocket and to use his mobility effectively. His bad habits are still apparent, and his accuracy has waned, despite having D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey at his disposal. The Panthers as a whole have a lot they need to figure out, but if Mayfield continues to play at this level he may not get another shot as a starting QB in the league anytime soon. ■
Awesome analysis and read!!!
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