It’s that time of year again. You’re starting to see those end-of-summer rains, you feel cautiously optimistic about your fantasy football team that will end up missing the playoffs, and folding tables in the city of Buffalo are already beginning to scream for mercy.
The NFL is finally back after almost seven full months, and ‘tis the season for awful, irresponsible, almost certainly doomed predictions. Football is a notoriously volatile sport, and while every individual game is ripe for in-depth analysis of tactical chess matches, trying to predict the league’s results well in advance is a fool’s errand. Only those who are grossly overconfident in their limited knowledge of the sport and who have absolutely no shame whatsoever will do something like try to prophesize exactly who will win each division this season.
So without further ado, here are my predictions about who will win each division this season.
It’s not hard to see where the hype comes from. On top of a stacked roster Buffalo is led by one of the truly elite, game-breaking quarterbacks in Josh Allen and a progressive coaching staff anchored by Sean McDermott. For those more interested in subjectivity, the Bills still have you covered; they and the Buccaneers were the only teams to have notched a top-5 finish in both Offensive EPA/play and Defensive EPA/play last season, according to RBSDM.
Josh Allen looks to lead the Bills to the Super Bowl this year. Photo by: Jeffrey T. Barnes / AP Photo.
It was clear to see that Buffalo’s defense faltered down the stretch last year and ultimately caused their demise. After waltzing through 11 weeks of mostly pushover opponents save for Tennessee and Kansas City, the latter of whom they whooped convincingly, the Bills were absolutely decimated on the ground by the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. McDermott’s defense was only 12th-best in the league by Defensive EPA/play from that week through the end of the regular season, and they drop to 20th if you include their two playoff games. Though Allen and the offense played as close as it gets to perfect football across two playoff games, Buffalo didn’t even end up making the AFC Championship game.
However, the imminent return of two-time All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White and the aforementioned addition of all-world edge rusher Von Miller should stop this defense from bleeding so many points in crucial situations. Considering how badly Buffalo beat the Patriots -- their biggest competition in the division all of last season -- in their past two outings, the Bills should be clear favorites to win the AFC East, despite some solid offseason improvements by a plucky Dolphins team.
AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
This is quite easily the most intriguing division in all of football, and already has a shot at going down as the toughest in the history of the league. I’m not being hyperbolic -- the Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders are four deep teams led by elite or near-elite quarterbacks in Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr. Though Kansas City would be the safer choice given their pedigree, I’m rolling with likely the third-most popular professional football team in Los Angeles to win this stacked division (I still contend that L.A. is Raiders town first and Rams town second).
Despite not yet having the opportunity to showcase his stuff in the playoffs, Justin Herbert has established himself as a special quarterback talent in the league. The third-year signal-caller out of Oregon has an absolute cannon for an arm -- so much so that he sometimes fools the cameramen with how far his throws can travel -- as well as elite rushing capabilities and a high football IQ. Head coach Brandon Staley, who previously served under Sean McVay, leads an aggressive coaching staff that is never afraid to put responsibility on their young QB. Herbert, however, is well-supported by a dynamic skill position group consisting of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Most importantly, Herbert has his blind side protected by franchise left tackle Rashawn Slater, and the rest of the offensive line isn’t too shabby either as PFF has them as 12th-best in the league heading into Week 1.
The real reason I have become bullish on the Bolts, though, is their downright astonishing improvements on defense this offseason. The Chargers were able to swing a trade for Khalil Mack -- a former Defensive Player of the Year -- for relatively cheap, and made a splash signing for cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was an All Pro last year. Sprinkle in incredibly savvy deals with DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kyle Van Noy, and DE Morgan Fox, as well as the return of game-changing safety Derwin James, and Staley will have lots to work with. There’s no sure thing in this division, but this Chargers team playing a third-place schedule and with Herbert potentially taking another step forward could be scary.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
This division is practically a coin flip between Baltimore and Cincinnati, and although the Ravens looked utterly lost in their two matchups against the Bengals last season, John Harbaugh’s squad has some elements working in their favor to reclaim their division this season. The first and most obvious factor is health; Baltimore was bitten by a near-historic injury bug last season, culminating in Lamar Jackson’s first major injury of his career. Before Jackson went down, the Ravens were sitting at 8-3 despite the many injuries affecting the rest of the roster. They proceeded to lose their last six games and finish last in the division at 8-9.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens look to bounce back from injury this season, Photo by: Gail Burton / Associated Press.
This leads to three key conclusions. The first is that Lamar Jackson has an uncanny ability to will his team to victories, despite how pretty or ugly his play style looks or how depleted his supporting cast is. The second is that the Ravens with a healthy Jackson and with the roster at even half strength can realistically be a ten-win team. The third juicy conclusion is that Baltimore, after getting healthy and having a monster offseason, will be playing a fourth-place schedule this upcoming season.
After facing a gauntlet last year, the Ravens have the 11th-easiest schedule in the league based on Vegas projected win totals. Baltimore also made out like bandits in the NFL draft, landing four first-round caliber players with their first four picks. Add in the players returning from injury -- most notably Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Peters, who change the fabric of the Ravens’ offense and defense, respectively -- and this is a better roster than the one that could have entered last season if fully healthy. The Bengals made some waves this summer themselves, most notably strengthening their leaky offensive line, but given the fact that their schedule will make the opposite 180º turn as Baltimore’s, I’m picking the Ravens to just barely win the AFC North.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
This looks like the weakest division in the AFC on paper, as over the past two seasons only Indianapolis and Tennessee have trotted out professional-caliber teams to the gridiron. Though the Texans and Jaguars are near-locks to be better than they were last season, Houston simply doesn’t have enough talent to contend and Jacksonville can be in the running only if absolutely everything goes right for them this year.
That leaves just the Colts and the Titans, and these look like teams headed in different directions. After securing the #1 seed in the AFC last year, Tennessee unceremoniously were one-and-done in the playoffs, primarily due to some shenanigans from starting QB Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry, who really dictates the offense, is just coming back from a Lisfranc injury and the team’s best wideout, A.J. Brown, was swapped out for an unproven first-round pick in Treylon Burks. Robert Woods was a sneaky-good pickup at wide receiver but is himself coming back from a nasty ACL injury -- an injury that the team’s best edge rusher, Harold Landry, just suffered.
There’s too much uncertainty in Music City for me to confidently pick them, but I like what I’ve seen from the Colts this summer. First and foremost they swapped out Carson Wentz, a not-very-good quarterback, for Matt Ryan, a very good quarterback. That alone could honestly have been my whole reasoning for Indianapolis snatching this division, given that Wentz’ horror shows in both games vs. the Titans last year were the difference in the division last year. Nevertheless, the Colts, to their credit, did make some other good moves as well: they signed former DPOY Stephon Gilmore and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, and had a decent draft class led by WR Alec Pierce. This should be another close divisional race, but I like Matt Ryan to lead Indianapolis to the AFC South crown.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
The Dallas Cowboys are still a good football team, no doubt. But after having likely the best offseason in the entire league, I’m just finding it hard to pick against the Eagles to win this division. Philadelphia just barely snuck into the playoffs last year, but if you look closer, after starting 2-5 they were quietly one of the NFL’s best teams Week 8 and onwards.
The Eagles were among the league's eight best teams according to RBSDM in Week 8 and onwards.
The Eagles boast perhaps the league’s best offensive line and made huge gains in their defense by drafting man mountain Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean (possibly the steal of the entire draft), signing LB Haason Reddick and CB James Bradberry, and swinging a surprise trade for perhaps the best slot defender in football, C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Philadelphia also acquired A.J. Brown from the Titans, the final piece of a much-improved supporting cast for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who will now undoubtedly make or break this team. The jury may be out on Hurts, but I think given how well Philly played down the stretch last year plus their absolute belter of an offseason, Hurts only needs to play “ok” to win this division. If he takes a big step forward, however, the Eagles could be a sneaky contender in the NFC as a whole.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
It shouldn’t take too much to consider the reigning Super Bowl champions as favorites within their division, especially given that the 49ers are in quarterback flux right now, the Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins for six games due to suspension (and Kliff Kingsbury will still likely be the team’s coach when he comes back), and the Seahawks are rebuilding after trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos.
Still, it is worth noting that the Rams did suffer some key losses themselves. Von Miller, who came on strong down the stretch last year to help lead the franchise to their first Super Bowl trophy since the 1999 season, left for a monster contract in Buffalo. Starting LT Andrew Whitworth finally retired after a storied career, CB Darious Williams departed for Jacksonville after a breakout season, and WR Robert Woods left for Tennessee after five very under-appreciated years with the team.
However, the Rams seem more than capable to cope with all of these losses. The underrated Joseph Noteboom can easily slot into the LT position, CB Troy Hill is back with the team after being one-and-done with Cleveland, and Allen Robinson was finally rescued from quarterback hell to be Cooper Kupp’s new running mate -- all of these are like-for-like replacements for the team’s significant losses.
Allen Robinson is a key addition for the Rams at WR. Photo by: Kareem Elgazzar / The Enquirer / USA Today Network.
That just leaves the loss of Miller, whose talent and clutch gene the Rams weren’t able to substitute with another edge rusher -- though they were able to somehow pick up Bobby Wagner from Seattle. Wagner is not a pass rusher by trade but the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer is still very good at what he does as the defense’s signal-caller, and will give defensive coordinator Raheem Morris some new ideas to toy with. With A’Shawn Robinson, Greg Gaines, Leonard Floyd, and, oh yeah, Aaron Donald, the Rams still should have enough talent to rush the quarterback this season sans Miller. I like Los Angeles to win this division, unless Trey Lance has a breakout MVP-caliber season with San Francisco.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
I’ve been seeing more than a few people pick the Minnesota Vikings as their trendy division champion of the year, and I can’t say I do not see the merits in that assessment. New head coach Kevin O’Connell could reasonably give Justin Jefferson the Cooper Kupp treatment and elevate his already-elite game to the next level, and the dramatic signing of Za’Darius Smith is huge for their pass rush. Plus, the Packers trading away Davante Adams breaks up one of the greatest QB-WR connections in modern NFL history and could open the door for some regression in Green Bay’s offense.
Still, I just can’t see another team being better than the Packers in the NFC North this year. Yes, losing Adams was a huge blow as he is one of the truly irreplaceable players in the league, but I liked Green Bay’s strategy of surrounding Aaron Rodgers with many pass-catching options to cope with the loss. Draft picks Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have been good in training camp, 2020’s breakout tight end Robert Tonyan is back from an ACL injury, and Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, and longtime Rodgers favorite Randall Cobb round out a sneakily deep core.
With David Bakhtiari nearing a return, the Packers have a near-elite offensive line according to PFF. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combine for a brutal one-two punch at running back for defenses. And speaking of defense, Green Bay’s is more than talented enough to provide quality support for Rodgers. With Jaire Alexander getting healthy, it has potential to even be a top-10 unit. I do like the Vikings making the playoffs as a wild card, and I can easily envision Detroit making a leap to become an eight-win team, but I don’t see anyone knocking the Packers off their division’s perch this year.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A lot is up in the air for Tampa Bay this season, not the least of which is Tom Brady’s future. After reportedly retiring and then unretiring, being named in an illegal scheme by Miami to build a team in 2022 with him on it, and logging a surprise absence late in the offseason after which reports came out that his marriage with Gisele Bündchen is on thin ice, Brady has had a tumultuous summer to say the least. Given how well he’s played every year that people expect him to fall off a cliff, it’s unlikely that the ball finally drops this season and Brady puts up final-season Peyton Manning numbers. Still, it is possible.
Tom Brady surprisingly returned for a 23rd season after reports of his retirement. Photo by: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images.
However, even if Brady’s arm were to finally regress, his lightning-quick processing, legendary pre-snap analysis of defenses, and sharp ball placement still make him more than good enough to win the division given the enormous amount of talent he has around him in Tampa.
Bruce Arians stepped down as head coach, but only to become a senior consultant with the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles -- whose defensive scheme was the real key to their Super Bowl LV victory -- was elevated to head coach, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich remains with the team after shockingly receiving zero head-coaching offers. Add in the fact that Tampa was able to retain pretty much all of their key pieces on defense, and there is enough continuity in this team for things to keep humming.
The loss of Rob Gronkowski to retirement (for now) stings, but is unlikely to unravel the offense. The shock retirement of Ali Marpet and the injury to Ryan Jensen, on the other hand, are massive blows to the Bucs’ interior offensive line and could be their undoing come playoff time, but the addition of Shaq Mason should help mitigate that potential Achilles’ heel for the time being. The only team that could realistically challenge Tampa is New Orleans, who got better on paper but are going into their first season after the Sean Payton era. All said, I just don’t see enough reason to bet against Brady and company in the NFC South this year. ■
The NFL is finally back after almost seven full months, and ‘tis the season for awful, irresponsible, almost certainly doomed predictions. Football is a notoriously volatile sport, and while every individual game is ripe for in-depth analysis of tactical chess matches, trying to predict the league’s results well in advance is a fool’s errand. Only those who are grossly overconfident in their limited knowledge of the sport and who have absolutely no shame whatsoever will do something like try to prophesize exactly who will win each division this season.
So without further ado, here are my predictions about who will win each division this season.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
The Bills went into the offseason with arguably the best top-to-bottom roster in the National Football League, despite a heartbreaking collapse prematurely ending their Lombardi dreams last season. After a busy summer in which the Bills added two-time Super Bowl champion Von Miller and otherwise improved their roster almost across the board, Buffalo is widely considered as the class of the NFL heading into this season. In fact, many sportsbooks have tabbed the Bills as the preseason favorite to win it all in February.It’s not hard to see where the hype comes from. On top of a stacked roster Buffalo is led by one of the truly elite, game-breaking quarterbacks in Josh Allen and a progressive coaching staff anchored by Sean McDermott. For those more interested in subjectivity, the Bills still have you covered; they and the Buccaneers were the only teams to have notched a top-5 finish in both Offensive EPA/play and Defensive EPA/play last season, according to RBSDM.
Josh Allen looks to lead the Bills to the Super Bowl this year. Photo by: Jeffrey T. Barnes / AP Photo.
It was clear to see that Buffalo’s defense faltered down the stretch last year and ultimately caused their demise. After waltzing through 11 weeks of mostly pushover opponents save for Tennessee and Kansas City, the latter of whom they whooped convincingly, the Bills were absolutely decimated on the ground by the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. McDermott’s defense was only 12th-best in the league by Defensive EPA/play from that week through the end of the regular season, and they drop to 20th if you include their two playoff games. Though Allen and the offense played as close as it gets to perfect football across two playoff games, Buffalo didn’t even end up making the AFC Championship game.
However, the imminent return of two-time All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White and the aforementioned addition of all-world edge rusher Von Miller should stop this defense from bleeding so many points in crucial situations. Considering how badly Buffalo beat the Patriots -- their biggest competition in the division all of last season -- in their past two outings, the Bills should be clear favorites to win the AFC East, despite some solid offseason improvements by a plucky Dolphins team.
AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
This is quite easily the most intriguing division in all of football, and already has a shot at going down as the toughest in the history of the league. I’m not being hyperbolic -- the Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders are four deep teams led by elite or near-elite quarterbacks in Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr. Though Kansas City would be the safer choice given their pedigree, I’m rolling with likely the third-most popular professional football team in Los Angeles to win this stacked division (I still contend that L.A. is Raiders town first and Rams town second).
Despite not yet having the opportunity to showcase his stuff in the playoffs, Justin Herbert has established himself as a special quarterback talent in the league. The third-year signal-caller out of Oregon has an absolute cannon for an arm -- so much so that he sometimes fools the cameramen with how far his throws can travel -- as well as elite rushing capabilities and a high football IQ. Head coach Brandon Staley, who previously served under Sean McVay, leads an aggressive coaching staff that is never afraid to put responsibility on their young QB. Herbert, however, is well-supported by a dynamic skill position group consisting of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Most importantly, Herbert has his blind side protected by franchise left tackle Rashawn Slater, and the rest of the offensive line isn’t too shabby either as PFF has them as 12th-best in the league heading into Week 1.
The real reason I have become bullish on the Bolts, though, is their downright astonishing improvements on defense this offseason. The Chargers were able to swing a trade for Khalil Mack -- a former Defensive Player of the Year -- for relatively cheap, and made a splash signing for cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was an All Pro last year. Sprinkle in incredibly savvy deals with DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kyle Van Noy, and DE Morgan Fox, as well as the return of game-changing safety Derwin James, and Staley will have lots to work with. There’s no sure thing in this division, but this Chargers team playing a third-place schedule and with Herbert potentially taking another step forward could be scary.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
This division is practically a coin flip between Baltimore and Cincinnati, and although the Ravens looked utterly lost in their two matchups against the Bengals last season, John Harbaugh’s squad has some elements working in their favor to reclaim their division this season. The first and most obvious factor is health; Baltimore was bitten by a near-historic injury bug last season, culminating in Lamar Jackson’s first major injury of his career. Before Jackson went down, the Ravens were sitting at 8-3 despite the many injuries affecting the rest of the roster. They proceeded to lose their last six games and finish last in the division at 8-9.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens look to bounce back from injury this season, Photo by: Gail Burton / Associated Press.
This leads to three key conclusions. The first is that Lamar Jackson has an uncanny ability to will his team to victories, despite how pretty or ugly his play style looks or how depleted his supporting cast is. The second is that the Ravens with a healthy Jackson and with the roster at even half strength can realistically be a ten-win team. The third juicy conclusion is that Baltimore, after getting healthy and having a monster offseason, will be playing a fourth-place schedule this upcoming season.
After facing a gauntlet last year, the Ravens have the 11th-easiest schedule in the league based on Vegas projected win totals. Baltimore also made out like bandits in the NFL draft, landing four first-round caliber players with their first four picks. Add in the players returning from injury -- most notably Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Peters, who change the fabric of the Ravens’ offense and defense, respectively -- and this is a better roster than the one that could have entered last season if fully healthy. The Bengals made some waves this summer themselves, most notably strengthening their leaky offensive line, but given the fact that their schedule will make the opposite 180º turn as Baltimore’s, I’m picking the Ravens to just barely win the AFC North.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
This looks like the weakest division in the AFC on paper, as over the past two seasons only Indianapolis and Tennessee have trotted out professional-caliber teams to the gridiron. Though the Texans and Jaguars are near-locks to be better than they were last season, Houston simply doesn’t have enough talent to contend and Jacksonville can be in the running only if absolutely everything goes right for them this year.
That leaves just the Colts and the Titans, and these look like teams headed in different directions. After securing the #1 seed in the AFC last year, Tennessee unceremoniously were one-and-done in the playoffs, primarily due to some shenanigans from starting QB Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry, who really dictates the offense, is just coming back from a Lisfranc injury and the team’s best wideout, A.J. Brown, was swapped out for an unproven first-round pick in Treylon Burks. Robert Woods was a sneaky-good pickup at wide receiver but is himself coming back from a nasty ACL injury -- an injury that the team’s best edge rusher, Harold Landry, just suffered.
There’s too much uncertainty in Music City for me to confidently pick them, but I like what I’ve seen from the Colts this summer. First and foremost they swapped out Carson Wentz, a not-very-good quarterback, for Matt Ryan, a very good quarterback. That alone could honestly have been my whole reasoning for Indianapolis snatching this division, given that Wentz’ horror shows in both games vs. the Titans last year were the difference in the division last year. Nevertheless, the Colts, to their credit, did make some other good moves as well: they signed former DPOY Stephon Gilmore and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, and had a decent draft class led by WR Alec Pierce. This should be another close divisional race, but I like Matt Ryan to lead Indianapolis to the AFC South crown.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
The Dallas Cowboys are still a good football team, no doubt. But after having likely the best offseason in the entire league, I’m just finding it hard to pick against the Eagles to win this division. Philadelphia just barely snuck into the playoffs last year, but if you look closer, after starting 2-5 they were quietly one of the NFL’s best teams Week 8 and onwards.
The Eagles were among the league's eight best teams according to RBSDM in Week 8 and onwards.
The Eagles boast perhaps the league’s best offensive line and made huge gains in their defense by drafting man mountain Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean (possibly the steal of the entire draft), signing LB Haason Reddick and CB James Bradberry, and swinging a surprise trade for perhaps the best slot defender in football, C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Philadelphia also acquired A.J. Brown from the Titans, the final piece of a much-improved supporting cast for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who will now undoubtedly make or break this team. The jury may be out on Hurts, but I think given how well Philly played down the stretch last year plus their absolute belter of an offseason, Hurts only needs to play “ok” to win this division. If he takes a big step forward, however, the Eagles could be a sneaky contender in the NFC as a whole.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
It shouldn’t take too much to consider the reigning Super Bowl champions as favorites within their division, especially given that the 49ers are in quarterback flux right now, the Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins for six games due to suspension (and Kliff Kingsbury will still likely be the team’s coach when he comes back), and the Seahawks are rebuilding after trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos.
Still, it is worth noting that the Rams did suffer some key losses themselves. Von Miller, who came on strong down the stretch last year to help lead the franchise to their first Super Bowl trophy since the 1999 season, left for a monster contract in Buffalo. Starting LT Andrew Whitworth finally retired after a storied career, CB Darious Williams departed for Jacksonville after a breakout season, and WR Robert Woods left for Tennessee after five very under-appreciated years with the team.
However, the Rams seem more than capable to cope with all of these losses. The underrated Joseph Noteboom can easily slot into the LT position, CB Troy Hill is back with the team after being one-and-done with Cleveland, and Allen Robinson was finally rescued from quarterback hell to be Cooper Kupp’s new running mate -- all of these are like-for-like replacements for the team’s significant losses.
Allen Robinson is a key addition for the Rams at WR. Photo by: Kareem Elgazzar / The Enquirer / USA Today Network.
That just leaves the loss of Miller, whose talent and clutch gene the Rams weren’t able to substitute with another edge rusher -- though they were able to somehow pick up Bobby Wagner from Seattle. Wagner is not a pass rusher by trade but the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer is still very good at what he does as the defense’s signal-caller, and will give defensive coordinator Raheem Morris some new ideas to toy with. With A’Shawn Robinson, Greg Gaines, Leonard Floyd, and, oh yeah, Aaron Donald, the Rams still should have enough talent to rush the quarterback this season sans Miller. I like Los Angeles to win this division, unless Trey Lance has a breakout MVP-caliber season with San Francisco.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
I’ve been seeing more than a few people pick the Minnesota Vikings as their trendy division champion of the year, and I can’t say I do not see the merits in that assessment. New head coach Kevin O’Connell could reasonably give Justin Jefferson the Cooper Kupp treatment and elevate his already-elite game to the next level, and the dramatic signing of Za’Darius Smith is huge for their pass rush. Plus, the Packers trading away Davante Adams breaks up one of the greatest QB-WR connections in modern NFL history and could open the door for some regression in Green Bay’s offense.
Still, I just can’t see another team being better than the Packers in the NFC North this year. Yes, losing Adams was a huge blow as he is one of the truly irreplaceable players in the league, but I liked Green Bay’s strategy of surrounding Aaron Rodgers with many pass-catching options to cope with the loss. Draft picks Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have been good in training camp, 2020’s breakout tight end Robert Tonyan is back from an ACL injury, and Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, and longtime Rodgers favorite Randall Cobb round out a sneakily deep core.
With David Bakhtiari nearing a return, the Packers have a near-elite offensive line according to PFF. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combine for a brutal one-two punch at running back for defenses. And speaking of defense, Green Bay’s is more than talented enough to provide quality support for Rodgers. With Jaire Alexander getting healthy, it has potential to even be a top-10 unit. I do like the Vikings making the playoffs as a wild card, and I can easily envision Detroit making a leap to become an eight-win team, but I don’t see anyone knocking the Packers off their division’s perch this year.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A lot is up in the air for Tampa Bay this season, not the least of which is Tom Brady’s future. After reportedly retiring and then unretiring, being named in an illegal scheme by Miami to build a team in 2022 with him on it, and logging a surprise absence late in the offseason after which reports came out that his marriage with Gisele Bündchen is on thin ice, Brady has had a tumultuous summer to say the least. Given how well he’s played every year that people expect him to fall off a cliff, it’s unlikely that the ball finally drops this season and Brady puts up final-season Peyton Manning numbers. Still, it is possible.
Tom Brady surprisingly returned for a 23rd season after reports of his retirement. Photo by: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images.
However, even if Brady’s arm were to finally regress, his lightning-quick processing, legendary pre-snap analysis of defenses, and sharp ball placement still make him more than good enough to win the division given the enormous amount of talent he has around him in Tampa.
Bruce Arians stepped down as head coach, but only to become a senior consultant with the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles -- whose defensive scheme was the real key to their Super Bowl LV victory -- was elevated to head coach, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich remains with the team after shockingly receiving zero head-coaching offers. Add in the fact that Tampa was able to retain pretty much all of their key pieces on defense, and there is enough continuity in this team for things to keep humming.
The loss of Rob Gronkowski to retirement (for now) stings, but is unlikely to unravel the offense. The shock retirement of Ali Marpet and the injury to Ryan Jensen, on the other hand, are massive blows to the Bucs’ interior offensive line and could be their undoing come playoff time, but the addition of Shaq Mason should help mitigate that potential Achilles’ heel for the time being. The only team that could realistically challenge Tampa is New Orleans, who got better on paper but are going into their first season after the Sean Payton era. All said, I just don’t see enough reason to bet against Brady and company in the NFC South this year. ■
My picks when they differ with yours. Cowboys, Bengals, Chiefs, Titans
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