Valentine’s Day came and went a couple weeks ago and I, like many others, spent the day trying to think as little of it as possible. In turn, this of course kept it at the very forefront of my mind for the entire 24 hours (granted, the bombardment of emails and advertisements for couples-themed products I received for days on end leading up to the wretched holiday were partially to blame).
Still, in my newfound journey towards continual self-improvement, I’ve learned that a little introspection should always be welcome in our lives, even when it’s difficult-- for instance, regarding our personal histories of decision-making and commitment. After all, being aware of our own flaws is perhaps the most powerful tool in our arsenal to aid with our own betterment.
Naturally, I concluded that the problem isn’t me and instead turned my attention towards criticizing others with commitment issues, as I am, clearly, a very emotionally healthy person.
And I could think of no person, or group of people, with more hilarious and confusing commitment issues than NFL teams and their quarterbacks. There are a small handful of teams at a very intriguing crossroads in their relationships with their starting quarterbacks. The decisions that each of these teams reach this offseason could have massive ripple effects on the future of their franchises. Here are my takes on four such conundrums:
Give Love A Chance: Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears
The Bears have considered dealing Justin Fields and drafting a QB with their #1 overall pick. Image from: NBC Sports.
I’ve written about Justin Fields at length twice before on this blog, once discussing the unfair narratives surrounding his pre-draft coverage, and once during his resurgence midway through last season. Now I’m doubling down once again (tripling down?) on my belief in Fields as a franchise quarterback for the Chicago Bears-- he just needs to be given a real shot to succeed.
I would be remiss not to mention that there are some valid concerns about Fields’ lack of production and success across his two seasons as a pro. He hasn’t exactly lit the stat sheet ablaze thus far; he ranks 29th in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite among all 33 qualified quarterbacks over the past two seasons, and sports a 24-21 TD-INT ratio with a 5-20 record in his 25 starts.
Fields, however, possesses a blend of arm strength, arm talent, and skill as a rusher that is beyond rare. A decent starting point for comparison for Fields is Buffalo’s Josh Allen-- it’s not perfectly like-for-like, but finding true analogs for unicorn talents like these two is difficult. Nevertheless, Allen’s career started somewhat similar to Fields’, in that he was mostly awful in his first two seasons. Allen ranked 33rd among all 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, with the only quarterback faring worse being Josh Rosen.
Did Buffalo cut bait on the über-talented Allen? Far from it-- they went out and acquired Stefon Diggs, the cherry on top of a mountain of shrewd additions at offensive line and receiver that Buffalo had been building for two years. Apart from Diggs, the Bills across the 2019 and 2020 offseasons got Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, and Gabe Davis to round out a stellar receiving corps, and bolstered the offensive line with several pickups including Quinton Spain, Cody Ford, Jon Feliciano, and Mitch Morse, with the latter two putting up Pro Bowl seasons during their time in Buffalo.
Allen, of course, went on to become one of the most unstoppable quarterbacks in football. And the difference before and after the acquisition of Diggs is night-and-day; Allen over the past three years ranks third-best in RBSDM’s overall quarterback efficiency metric behind only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
Josh Allen’s ascent to superstardom after the Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs was rapid. Image from: BillsWire/USA Today.
Another reasonably comparable QB to Fields, tools-wise, is Jalen Hurts, who was also doubted as a viable starter in the NFL after his first full season. The Eagles, however, chose to surround him with as much talent as possible at receiver and on the offensive line. In return, all Hurts did this past year was take Philadelphia to within three points of the franchise’s second-ever Lombardi Trophy. How was this turnaround engineered? Aside from Hurts benefitting from having play-calling continuity for the first time since high school and from the consistent improvement he was already naturally experiencing, Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office built a stellar group of blockers and receivers around him. Granted, Philly’s offensive line was already in great shape, as it seems to always be under longtime OL coach Jeff Stoutland’s tutelage, but the addition of Landon Dickerson in 2021 and Jordan Mailata’s breakout fourth-and-fifth-year seasons at left tackle turned that line into football’s best, by a fairly wide margin.
And of course, drafting DeVonta Smith and trading for A.J. Brown gave Hurts one of the league’s finest 1-2 punches at wide receiver; the addition of Brown, especially, seemed to help take Hurts’ game to the next level, just as Diggs’ arrival did for Josh Allen. Per the nflfastR Play Index, Hurts averaged 0.387 EPA/play when targeting Brown-- that’s more than double the season-long figure of Patrick Mahomes (0.178), who led the league in that metric this year.
The connection between Jalen Hurts (right) and A.J. Brown (left) thrived all season. Image from: Getty Images.
Still, in my newfound journey towards continual self-improvement, I’ve learned that a little introspection should always be welcome in our lives, even when it’s difficult-- for instance, regarding our personal histories of decision-making and commitment. After all, being aware of our own flaws is perhaps the most powerful tool in our arsenal to aid with our own betterment.
Naturally, I concluded that the problem isn’t me and instead turned my attention towards criticizing others with commitment issues, as I am, clearly, a very emotionally healthy person.
And I could think of no person, or group of people, with more hilarious and confusing commitment issues than NFL teams and their quarterbacks. There are a small handful of teams at a very intriguing crossroads in their relationships with their starting quarterbacks. The decisions that each of these teams reach this offseason could have massive ripple effects on the future of their franchises. Here are my takes on four such conundrums:
Give Love A Chance: Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears
The Bears have considered dealing Justin Fields and drafting a QB with their #1 overall pick. Image from: NBC Sports.
I’ve written about Justin Fields at length twice before on this blog, once discussing the unfair narratives surrounding his pre-draft coverage, and once during his resurgence midway through last season. Now I’m doubling down once again (tripling down?) on my belief in Fields as a franchise quarterback for the Chicago Bears-- he just needs to be given a real shot to succeed.
I would be remiss not to mention that there are some valid concerns about Fields’ lack of production and success across his two seasons as a pro. He hasn’t exactly lit the stat sheet ablaze thus far; he ranks 29th in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite among all 33 qualified quarterbacks over the past two seasons, and sports a 24-21 TD-INT ratio with a 5-20 record in his 25 starts.
Fields, however, possesses a blend of arm strength, arm talent, and skill as a rusher that is beyond rare. A decent starting point for comparison for Fields is Buffalo’s Josh Allen-- it’s not perfectly like-for-like, but finding true analogs for unicorn talents like these two is difficult. Nevertheless, Allen’s career started somewhat similar to Fields’, in that he was mostly awful in his first two seasons. Allen ranked 33rd among all 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, with the only quarterback faring worse being Josh Rosen.
Did Buffalo cut bait on the über-talented Allen? Far from it-- they went out and acquired Stefon Diggs, the cherry on top of a mountain of shrewd additions at offensive line and receiver that Buffalo had been building for two years. Apart from Diggs, the Bills across the 2019 and 2020 offseasons got Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, and Gabe Davis to round out a stellar receiving corps, and bolstered the offensive line with several pickups including Quinton Spain, Cody Ford, Jon Feliciano, and Mitch Morse, with the latter two putting up Pro Bowl seasons during their time in Buffalo.
Allen, of course, went on to become one of the most unstoppable quarterbacks in football. And the difference before and after the acquisition of Diggs is night-and-day; Allen over the past three years ranks third-best in RBSDM’s overall quarterback efficiency metric behind only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
Josh Allen’s ascent to superstardom after the Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs was rapid. Image from: BillsWire/USA Today.
Another reasonably comparable QB to Fields, tools-wise, is Jalen Hurts, who was also doubted as a viable starter in the NFL after his first full season. The Eagles, however, chose to surround him with as much talent as possible at receiver and on the offensive line. In return, all Hurts did this past year was take Philadelphia to within three points of the franchise’s second-ever Lombardi Trophy. How was this turnaround engineered? Aside from Hurts benefitting from having play-calling continuity for the first time since high school and from the consistent improvement he was already naturally experiencing, Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office built a stellar group of blockers and receivers around him. Granted, Philly’s offensive line was already in great shape, as it seems to always be under longtime OL coach Jeff Stoutland’s tutelage, but the addition of Landon Dickerson in 2021 and Jordan Mailata’s breakout fourth-and-fifth-year seasons at left tackle turned that line into football’s best, by a fairly wide margin.
And of course, drafting DeVonta Smith and trading for A.J. Brown gave Hurts one of the league’s finest 1-2 punches at wide receiver; the addition of Brown, especially, seemed to help take Hurts’ game to the next level, just as Diggs’ arrival did for Josh Allen. Per the nflfastR Play Index, Hurts averaged 0.387 EPA/play when targeting Brown-- that’s more than double the season-long figure of Patrick Mahomes (0.178), who led the league in that metric this year.
The connection between Jalen Hurts (right) and A.J. Brown (left) thrived all season. Image from: Getty Images.
All of this is to say that Justin Fields is far from unsalvageable. Surround a quarterback that talented with a deep offensive line rotation, an alpha receiver with a quality number two on the other side, and some competent coaching and you’re bound to see some major improvement. Heading into this offseason, the Bears have more cap space to play with than any other team in the NFL, and it’s not even close. Although the free agent class of wide receivers doesn’t scream “alpha WR1” -- the group is headlined by JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jakobi Meyers, and Allen Lazard -- any of those three players has the talent to be one of the league’s best second options. If Chicago could sign one of them and swing a trade for a tried-and-true #1 WR whose employer may be looking to part ways (think DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, or Keenan Allen), this offense suddenly becomes a different beast. Trading down their #1 pick and using one of their newfound selections on a receiver like Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, or Zay Flowers in this draft would be an intriguing option as well. Darnell Mooney is already a fine receiving threat operating out of the slot, and the duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert comprise one of the league’s best backfields, so with some OL reinforcements Fields could finally start cooking with gas.
Above all else, however, is the fact that no quarterback in this draft class comes close to Fields’ level in terms of tools to build around. I like C.J. Stroud as QB1, and I see potential in Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis-- but in no way would any of them have a higher ceiling than Fields. So why move on when there’s not even a strong option to pivot to? If the Bears are smart, they’ll craft a nucleus of talent around Fields to truly give him the best chance to succeed. And in the worst case, that they still suck next year? Well, the Caleb Williams sweepstakes may become mighty interesting.
It’s Been Fun, But The Feelings Aren’t Strong: Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions
Jared Goff’s contract is now cuttable, but continuity this season may be beneficial. Image from: Getty Images/New York Post.
We know who Jared Goff is at this point. In his seven years in the NFL, he’s shown it to us. We’ve seen every part of the soap opera that is the “Jared Goff Experience”. Ultimately, he’s not a quarterback you can trust to unlock your offense and take a team to the promised land.
That’s not to say the Jared Goff Experience® has been all bad; he’s shown flashes of a signal caller who can thrive in an offense and can put up gaudy numbers. Most notably, in 2018 when working with the brain trust of head coach Sean McVay, quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor, and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron, Goff posted an impressive 4,688 yard, 32 TD/12 INT season en route to a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl berth.
If you’ll remember, though, that team relied heavily on Todd Gurley in the run game (and, unfortunately, a bit too heavily on his knees). Gurley ran for 1,251 yards at 4.9 yards/carry, and scored 17 touchdowns in 2018. Frankly, in his short prime, he was one of the most potent threats out of the backfield that the league has ever seen. As such, Los Angeles leaned heavily on play-action, when the defense was worried about the threat of a Gurley carry at least as much as that of a Goff pass attempt, as part of an effort to make Goff’s job as easy as possible. That year, the Rams ran play action on 36% of plays, more than any other team in the league; the drop-off in Offensive DVOA when they didn’t run play-action, however, was sixth-worst in the NFL, per Football Outsiders.
McVay’s system simplified the game for Goff and aimed to not need him to move past more than one read or make a tight-window throw. Play-action, bootlegs, and pre-snap motion sought to throw defenses off-balance and, ideally, open up acres of space for either Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, or Cooper Kupp. Screens and checkdowns to Gurley were plentiful, too, as fantasy football players that year know so well. However, when Goff was required to read the field like a veteran and go through his progressions quickly, he often faltered. Yes, if you’ll also remember-- that is the year the Rams made the Super Bowl and put up exactly three(!) points in an embarrassing loss.
Jared Goff and the Rams offense capitulated in their Super Bowl LIII loss to New England. Image from: Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports.
Essentially, when Goff was asked to do anything out of structure, and excel beyond the offense’s meticulously-crafted system, he withered. This hasn’t changed much during his time in Detroit. Although Goff did post a near-career-best season this past year -- he threw for 4,438 yards and tossed 29 TDs against 7 INTs -- the advanced statistics show the same player he’s always been. To illustrate, in 2018, Goff was the league’s 9th-best QB by EPA/play but ranked just 17th in CPOE; in 2022, Goff was again 9th-best in EPA/play but was 26th in CPOE. In other words, in a wonderfully designed offense, like Lions OC Ben Johnson’s system is, Goff makes the layups and the team can score points. But he’s just not much more than a layup-scorer. In fact, Goff didn’t even excel with the layups this season; his expected completion% was 5th-highest in the league, but his actual completion% ranked 14th, good for a -1.4 CPOE.
If you’re reading all this and are thinking to yourself that this discourse around Goff sounds like the discourse around Jimmy Garoppolo, you’re spot on. The two quarterbacks actually occupy a similar space in RBSDM’s Quarterback Efficiency graph, though one would be wise to note that Garoppolo outperforms Goff on both axes:
Goff and Garoppolo are similar quarterbacks, in the fact that when everything around them is going swimmingly, they’ll look great-- but as soon as their perfect system is challenged, the façade comes down quickly. Goff played some amazing games this year! But he also put up a fair few clunkers, and when he was bad, he was pretty bad.
It’s Time to Fully Commit: Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ lack of commitment to Lamar Jackson is puzzling, given his accolades. Image from: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
To be quite honest, this is a decision that should be relatively simple, but for whatever reason the Baltimore Ravens have been rather lukewarm when it comes to their willingness to pay Lamar Jackson like a top QB. Perhaps it’s because Baltimore has been burned by all-in commitment before (see: Joe Flacco’s post-Super-Bowl contract). But how do any of us find love if we’re unwilling to dust ourselves off and try again?
All strange analogies aside, Jackson has time and again proven himself as one of the truly incomparable quarterbacks in this league, with the tools to elevate an offense far beyond the sum of its parts. Jackson famously won a unanimous MVP in 2019; that season, he led the league in passing touchdowns with 36 (against just 6 interceptions), finished third in passer rating, and finished first in total QBR-- all of which are statistics that don’t take into account his game-breaking rushing talent. That season, Jackson’s top receivers were Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Hayden Hurst, Willie Snead, Nick Boyle, and Seth Roberts. Woof.
In Jackson’s four years as a full-time starter, Baltimore has spent the least money in the entire NFL on offensive personnel. This is despite the now-well-known fact that an elite-level quarterback on a rookie contract is possibly the single biggest advantage a team can have. Baltimore’s front office also, across Jackson’s rookie contract years, failed to acquire an elite WR1 (like, say, Stefon Diggs) and put up with OC Greg Roman’s stagnant system for at least a season-and-a-half too long.
Wide receivers across the league have often steered clear of Baltimore in free agency, not necessarily due to any doubt in Jackson as a passer but due to Roman’s offense, an offense which throughout Roman’s career has struggled to find intelligent ways to utilize wide receivers. Now, however, the Ravens have a new coordinator, Todd Monken, who has been putting together quality coaching seasons for quite some time and whose philosophy is a major improvement.
The Ravens’ hiring of Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator has been well-received. Image from: Tony Walsh/UGAAA.
Monken, who previously helped engineer explosive offenses in Tampa Bay and in Cleveland before helping Georgia win back-to-back CFB National Championships, prides himself on finding ways to stretch the field, going uptempo, and putting the ball in his best players’ hands. Monken, however, also still understands the importance of the run game, having worked under Kirby Smart at UGA, and, better still, utilizes the mobility of his quarterbacks-- Stetson Bennett rushed for 10 touchdowns this past season, good for a share of the team lead. Bennett, if you can believe it, is not as talented of a runner as Jackson, meaning Monken must already be salivating thinking of ways to force mismatches on the ground with his new QB1.
In fewer words: Baltimore finally has an offensive coordinator whose system can entice elite wide receivers to want to play for the team. This is a golden opportunity to finally surround Jackson with a creative, forward-thinking play sheet and the skill position talent to boot.
The Ravens don’t quite have a wealth of cap space like Chicago or Atlanta do, but it’s not impossible to sign Jackson to an elite, long-term contract this offseason with relatively little pain. By kicking more of the money in Jackson’s contract to the second year and beyond, restructuring the contract of oft-injured left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and cutting or trading safety Chuck Clark, Baltimore already has room for Jackson on a big-ticket deal with essentially the entire core of the roster intact.
It’s not exactly that simple, but that’s just a start. GMs perform wizardry with cap figures all the time-- just look at what Saints GM Mickey Loomis has been doing (the power of voidable years and restructured deals remains unmatched). So I’m confident Ravens GM Eric DeCosta could figure it out. Simply put, quarterbacks like Jackson are hard to find. They just don’t reach free agency, and we all know how difficult it is to truly hit on a quarterback in the draft, no matter how much of a “sure thing” one might be.
When Jackson has started, the Ravens have gone 45-16. He seems to always be the “youngest QB to win [X] games”, or one of the top three, at every milestone, and the company he keeps in those record books is usually along the lines of Dan Marino, Patrick Mahomes, and the like. The Ravens’ record without him since he’s been in the league? 8-13.
Don’t overthink it-- pay the man.
True Love Requires Compromises: Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith and the Seahawks could both benefit from a compromise to stay together Image from: Jane Gershovich/Getty Images.
Geno Smith put up one of the most fascinating quarterback seasons in recent memory this past year. He came out of absolutely nowhere after years of mediocrity, and at the ripe age of 32 put up the first Pro Bowl season of his career. Oftentimes, seasons like these scream “fool’s gold”, but Smith’s season was a more curious case.
He wasn’t exempt from having poor games -- both San Francisco matchups, the dropped game against Tampa Bay overseas, and the anemic offensive performance in Kansas City quickly come to mind -- but on the whole Smith avoided stupid mistakes, stretched the field, and showed a pretty elastic arm with great mobility.
Unlike many other “where did that come from?” seasons from QBs, Smith’s year held up well under the advanced-statistics microscope, which I wrote about in further detail in November. His absurd 5.7 CPOE mark led Patrick Mahomes, who finished second, by over 2 whole points. His 30 touchdowns and 5.2 TD% ranked 4th and 7th in the league, respectively, and he finished the year 6th in total QBR.
His skillset, tools, and play-style also make an uncanny fit in OC Shane Waldron’s offense. It’s not so easy to chalk up his year to dumb luck and look into drafting a QB with the 5th overall pick. Smith really did show flashes of a quarterback who can elevate an offense to the next level. Those players are pretty hard to come by.
Still, it was just his first such year after nine years of disappointment. It’s also not all that easy to decide to pay Smith like a top quarterback and power onwards. If he does regress after signing a deal, Seattle could end up hamstringing one of the brightest young cores in the NFL when it comes time to renew rookie contracts of their best players.
So where do we go from here? Back in early November, I advocated strongly for Seattle to re-sign him. He put up a couple strong games over the second half of the season, but ultimately played some of his worst football in the stretch run; the Seahawks went 3-5 in their final 8 games and only barely snuck into the playoffs with some help from their friends in Detroit.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense faltered down the stretch last season. Image from: Abbie Parr/Getty Images.
Is the picture less clear now? Well, somewhat. Seattle finds themselves not in too different a position than the Lions are in with Jared Goff; the issue, though, is that Smith is due a new contract now.
I still believe Smith earned at least another year as a starter, and that there’s a chance he can be a signal-caller that elevates his team. Seattle does has the tenth-most cap space to operate with, but that could evaporate quickly if Smith demands a near-elite deal, which isn’t out of the question. So, both sides may need to get a little creative.
All players in the NFL seek security in the way of long-term deals with lots of guaranteed money. This isn’t a matter of greed, per se-- it’s rooted in the fact that, when playing one of the world’s most violent sports, your career truly can end on any given play. Smith likely is no exception, so how should he and the Seahawks front office can play this?
One solution is to pay Smith elite money, or very close to it, for two years, with lots of guarantees baked in. This gives Seattle an out to make another decision on if Geno is “the guy” before most of their core of players on rookie contracts are due for extensions themselves. It may not pay out over as many years as Smith would prefer, but could still see him earn gobs of money up front.
Maybe a better way to structure it would be to make it a longer-term deal, maybe four or five years, but with the majority of the guaranteed money paid out within the first two years, and with easy outs and a more incentive-laden salary in the third year and beyond. I can’t pretend to be privy to how exactly these negotiations work behind closed doors, so I can’t say with certainty that my impromptu plan would succeed. Still, it seems like a fair way to approach the situation.
In any case, there’s something to build around with Geno Smith, but there is a limit to how “all-in” Seattle should go with him as of now. For both sides, it seems like a compromise may be in order. ■
Above all else, however, is the fact that no quarterback in this draft class comes close to Fields’ level in terms of tools to build around. I like C.J. Stroud as QB1, and I see potential in Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis-- but in no way would any of them have a higher ceiling than Fields. So why move on when there’s not even a strong option to pivot to? If the Bears are smart, they’ll craft a nucleus of talent around Fields to truly give him the best chance to succeed. And in the worst case, that they still suck next year? Well, the Caleb Williams sweepstakes may become mighty interesting.
It’s Been Fun, But The Feelings Aren’t Strong: Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions
Jared Goff’s contract is now cuttable, but continuity this season may be beneficial. Image from: Getty Images/New York Post.
We know who Jared Goff is at this point. In his seven years in the NFL, he’s shown it to us. We’ve seen every part of the soap opera that is the “Jared Goff Experience”. Ultimately, he’s not a quarterback you can trust to unlock your offense and take a team to the promised land.
That’s not to say the Jared Goff Experience® has been all bad; he’s shown flashes of a signal caller who can thrive in an offense and can put up gaudy numbers. Most notably, in 2018 when working with the brain trust of head coach Sean McVay, quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor, and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron, Goff posted an impressive 4,688 yard, 32 TD/12 INT season en route to a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl berth.
If you’ll remember, though, that team relied heavily on Todd Gurley in the run game (and, unfortunately, a bit too heavily on his knees). Gurley ran for 1,251 yards at 4.9 yards/carry, and scored 17 touchdowns in 2018. Frankly, in his short prime, he was one of the most potent threats out of the backfield that the league has ever seen. As such, Los Angeles leaned heavily on play-action, when the defense was worried about the threat of a Gurley carry at least as much as that of a Goff pass attempt, as part of an effort to make Goff’s job as easy as possible. That year, the Rams ran play action on 36% of plays, more than any other team in the league; the drop-off in Offensive DVOA when they didn’t run play-action, however, was sixth-worst in the NFL, per Football Outsiders.
McVay’s system simplified the game for Goff and aimed to not need him to move past more than one read or make a tight-window throw. Play-action, bootlegs, and pre-snap motion sought to throw defenses off-balance and, ideally, open up acres of space for either Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, or Cooper Kupp. Screens and checkdowns to Gurley were plentiful, too, as fantasy football players that year know so well. However, when Goff was required to read the field like a veteran and go through his progressions quickly, he often faltered. Yes, if you’ll also remember-- that is the year the Rams made the Super Bowl and put up exactly three(!) points in an embarrassing loss.
Jared Goff and the Rams offense capitulated in their Super Bowl LIII loss to New England. Image from: Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports.
Essentially, when Goff was asked to do anything out of structure, and excel beyond the offense’s meticulously-crafted system, he withered. This hasn’t changed much during his time in Detroit. Although Goff did post a near-career-best season this past year -- he threw for 4,438 yards and tossed 29 TDs against 7 INTs -- the advanced statistics show the same player he’s always been. To illustrate, in 2018, Goff was the league’s 9th-best QB by EPA/play but ranked just 17th in CPOE; in 2022, Goff was again 9th-best in EPA/play but was 26th in CPOE. In other words, in a wonderfully designed offense, like Lions OC Ben Johnson’s system is, Goff makes the layups and the team can score points. But he’s just not much more than a layup-scorer. In fact, Goff didn’t even excel with the layups this season; his expected completion% was 5th-highest in the league, but his actual completion% ranked 14th, good for a -1.4 CPOE.
If you’re reading all this and are thinking to yourself that this discourse around Goff sounds like the discourse around Jimmy Garoppolo, you’re spot on. The two quarterbacks actually occupy a similar space in RBSDM’s Quarterback Efficiency graph, though one would be wise to note that Garoppolo outperforms Goff on both axes:
Goff and Garoppolo are similar quarterbacks, in the fact that when everything around them is going swimmingly, they’ll look great-- but as soon as their perfect system is challenged, the façade comes down quickly. Goff played some amazing games this year! But he also put up a fair few clunkers, and when he was bad, he was pretty bad.
Goff's contract -- once considered one of the worst in the league -- has become much more interesting. His cap hit is now only the 10th-highest in the league, but most importantly his restructured contract becomes very cuttable starting this year. Should Detroit release Goff this offseason (post-June 1), they’d save around $26 million, and if they release Goff next offseason (either pre- or post-June 1), they’d save about $27 million.
Some continuity in an offense of a team as hungry as Detroit to build on their 2022 momentum could be helpful. It’s always a risk to swap starting quarterbacks and expect the offense to be just as good, if not better-- especially if that new quarterback is a rookie. Still, the Lions should keep their options open and look to target someone with the tools to truly take the team to the next level. Maybe they take a flier on Anthony Richardson in this draft. Maybe they roll with Goff for another full season and throw their war chest of assets at trading up to draft Caleb Williams (it’s the second time you’ve heard his name in this piece, and for good reason). In the worst case, one of those new quarterbacks can also be a layup-scorer, but at a much cheaper price than Goff. And in the best case, they could take the top off defenses and turn this offense into one of the league's juggernauts.
In any case, the Lions are a team that honestly aren’t all that far away from becoming true contenders. The Rams built their core and were able to realize before it was too late that replacing Goff for a higher-caliber quarterback like Matt Stafford could win them a Super Bowl, and it did. The Lions should keep that formula front of mind as well. Admittedly, it is a little sad that Goff’s name has perhaps become synonymous with offenses stalling out and needing an upgrade-- but I guess that’s just another part of the Jared Goff Experience®.
Some continuity in an offense of a team as hungry as Detroit to build on their 2022 momentum could be helpful. It’s always a risk to swap starting quarterbacks and expect the offense to be just as good, if not better-- especially if that new quarterback is a rookie. Still, the Lions should keep their options open and look to target someone with the tools to truly take the team to the next level. Maybe they take a flier on Anthony Richardson in this draft. Maybe they roll with Goff for another full season and throw their war chest of assets at trading up to draft Caleb Williams (it’s the second time you’ve heard his name in this piece, and for good reason). In the worst case, one of those new quarterbacks can also be a layup-scorer, but at a much cheaper price than Goff. And in the best case, they could take the top off defenses and turn this offense into one of the league's juggernauts.
In any case, the Lions are a team that honestly aren’t all that far away from becoming true contenders. The Rams built their core and were able to realize before it was too late that replacing Goff for a higher-caliber quarterback like Matt Stafford could win them a Super Bowl, and it did. The Lions should keep that formula front of mind as well. Admittedly, it is a little sad that Goff’s name has perhaps become synonymous with offenses stalling out and needing an upgrade-- but I guess that’s just another part of the Jared Goff Experience®.
It’s Time to Fully Commit: Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ lack of commitment to Lamar Jackson is puzzling, given his accolades. Image from: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
To be quite honest, this is a decision that should be relatively simple, but for whatever reason the Baltimore Ravens have been rather lukewarm when it comes to their willingness to pay Lamar Jackson like a top QB. Perhaps it’s because Baltimore has been burned by all-in commitment before (see: Joe Flacco’s post-Super-Bowl contract). But how do any of us find love if we’re unwilling to dust ourselves off and try again?
All strange analogies aside, Jackson has time and again proven himself as one of the truly incomparable quarterbacks in this league, with the tools to elevate an offense far beyond the sum of its parts. Jackson famously won a unanimous MVP in 2019; that season, he led the league in passing touchdowns with 36 (against just 6 interceptions), finished third in passer rating, and finished first in total QBR-- all of which are statistics that don’t take into account his game-breaking rushing talent. That season, Jackson’s top receivers were Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Hayden Hurst, Willie Snead, Nick Boyle, and Seth Roberts. Woof.
In Jackson’s four years as a full-time starter, Baltimore has spent the least money in the entire NFL on offensive personnel. This is despite the now-well-known fact that an elite-level quarterback on a rookie contract is possibly the single biggest advantage a team can have. Baltimore’s front office also, across Jackson’s rookie contract years, failed to acquire an elite WR1 (like, say, Stefon Diggs) and put up with OC Greg Roman’s stagnant system for at least a season-and-a-half too long.
Wide receivers across the league have often steered clear of Baltimore in free agency, not necessarily due to any doubt in Jackson as a passer but due to Roman’s offense, an offense which throughout Roman’s career has struggled to find intelligent ways to utilize wide receivers. Now, however, the Ravens have a new coordinator, Todd Monken, who has been putting together quality coaching seasons for quite some time and whose philosophy is a major improvement.
The Ravens’ hiring of Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator has been well-received. Image from: Tony Walsh/UGAAA.
Monken, who previously helped engineer explosive offenses in Tampa Bay and in Cleveland before helping Georgia win back-to-back CFB National Championships, prides himself on finding ways to stretch the field, going uptempo, and putting the ball in his best players’ hands. Monken, however, also still understands the importance of the run game, having worked under Kirby Smart at UGA, and, better still, utilizes the mobility of his quarterbacks-- Stetson Bennett rushed for 10 touchdowns this past season, good for a share of the team lead. Bennett, if you can believe it, is not as talented of a runner as Jackson, meaning Monken must already be salivating thinking of ways to force mismatches on the ground with his new QB1.
In fewer words: Baltimore finally has an offensive coordinator whose system can entice elite wide receivers to want to play for the team. This is a golden opportunity to finally surround Jackson with a creative, forward-thinking play sheet and the skill position talent to boot.
The Ravens don’t quite have a wealth of cap space like Chicago or Atlanta do, but it’s not impossible to sign Jackson to an elite, long-term contract this offseason with relatively little pain. By kicking more of the money in Jackson’s contract to the second year and beyond, restructuring the contract of oft-injured left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and cutting or trading safety Chuck Clark, Baltimore already has room for Jackson on a big-ticket deal with essentially the entire core of the roster intact.
It’s not exactly that simple, but that’s just a start. GMs perform wizardry with cap figures all the time-- just look at what Saints GM Mickey Loomis has been doing (the power of voidable years and restructured deals remains unmatched). So I’m confident Ravens GM Eric DeCosta could figure it out. Simply put, quarterbacks like Jackson are hard to find. They just don’t reach free agency, and we all know how difficult it is to truly hit on a quarterback in the draft, no matter how much of a “sure thing” one might be.
When Jackson has started, the Ravens have gone 45-16. He seems to always be the “youngest QB to win [X] games”, or one of the top three, at every milestone, and the company he keeps in those record books is usually along the lines of Dan Marino, Patrick Mahomes, and the like. The Ravens’ record without him since he’s been in the league? 8-13.
Don’t overthink it-- pay the man.
True Love Requires Compromises: Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith and the Seahawks could both benefit from a compromise to stay together Image from: Jane Gershovich/Getty Images.
Geno Smith put up one of the most fascinating quarterback seasons in recent memory this past year. He came out of absolutely nowhere after years of mediocrity, and at the ripe age of 32 put up the first Pro Bowl season of his career. Oftentimes, seasons like these scream “fool’s gold”, but Smith’s season was a more curious case.
He wasn’t exempt from having poor games -- both San Francisco matchups, the dropped game against Tampa Bay overseas, and the anemic offensive performance in Kansas City quickly come to mind -- but on the whole Smith avoided stupid mistakes, stretched the field, and showed a pretty elastic arm with great mobility.
Unlike many other “where did that come from?” seasons from QBs, Smith’s year held up well under the advanced-statistics microscope, which I wrote about in further detail in November. His absurd 5.7 CPOE mark led Patrick Mahomes, who finished second, by over 2 whole points. His 30 touchdowns and 5.2 TD% ranked 4th and 7th in the league, respectively, and he finished the year 6th in total QBR.
His skillset, tools, and play-style also make an uncanny fit in OC Shane Waldron’s offense. It’s not so easy to chalk up his year to dumb luck and look into drafting a QB with the 5th overall pick. Smith really did show flashes of a quarterback who can elevate an offense to the next level. Those players are pretty hard to come by.
Still, it was just his first such year after nine years of disappointment. It’s also not all that easy to decide to pay Smith like a top quarterback and power onwards. If he does regress after signing a deal, Seattle could end up hamstringing one of the brightest young cores in the NFL when it comes time to renew rookie contracts of their best players.
So where do we go from here? Back in early November, I advocated strongly for Seattle to re-sign him. He put up a couple strong games over the second half of the season, but ultimately played some of his worst football in the stretch run; the Seahawks went 3-5 in their final 8 games and only barely snuck into the playoffs with some help from their friends in Detroit.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense faltered down the stretch last season. Image from: Abbie Parr/Getty Images.
Is the picture less clear now? Well, somewhat. Seattle finds themselves not in too different a position than the Lions are in with Jared Goff; the issue, though, is that Smith is due a new contract now.
I still believe Smith earned at least another year as a starter, and that there’s a chance he can be a signal-caller that elevates his team. Seattle does has the tenth-most cap space to operate with, but that could evaporate quickly if Smith demands a near-elite deal, which isn’t out of the question. So, both sides may need to get a little creative.
All players in the NFL seek security in the way of long-term deals with lots of guaranteed money. This isn’t a matter of greed, per se-- it’s rooted in the fact that, when playing one of the world’s most violent sports, your career truly can end on any given play. Smith likely is no exception, so how should he and the Seahawks front office can play this?
One solution is to pay Smith elite money, or very close to it, for two years, with lots of guarantees baked in. This gives Seattle an out to make another decision on if Geno is “the guy” before most of their core of players on rookie contracts are due for extensions themselves. It may not pay out over as many years as Smith would prefer, but could still see him earn gobs of money up front.
Maybe a better way to structure it would be to make it a longer-term deal, maybe four or five years, but with the majority of the guaranteed money paid out within the first two years, and with easy outs and a more incentive-laden salary in the third year and beyond. I can’t pretend to be privy to how exactly these negotiations work behind closed doors, so I can’t say with certainty that my impromptu plan would succeed. Still, it seems like a fair way to approach the situation.
In any case, there’s something to build around with Geno Smith, but there is a limit to how “all-in” Seattle should go with him as of now. For both sides, it seems like a compromise may be in order. ■
Better writing then anything on ESPN
ReplyDelete