Skip to main content

A Dutch Date: Can the USMNT Pull off an Upset?

A single beer on a Tuesday afternoon could never have been enough. With no food yet in my stomach since waking up with a sickening mixture of childlike excitement and unbridled cynicism, I had hoped my lager would steel my nerves. Still, watching the second half of the USMNT’s triumph over Iran was, with no exaggeration required, one of the most stressful experiences of my life; the nine minutes of stoppage time tacked on at the end of the second half may have been another 90, for all I was concerned. The American defense dropped deep and absorbed pressure from their opponents for most of the second half, and with each shot from a white-shirted player the pit in my stomach lurched to new lows until, at long last, that final whistle blew.

I, like many other USA soccer fans, came into their pivotal final group stage match against the Iranians expecting my country to win based on their quality of play so far. Unfortunately, I know this team well, and so running through my mind all day was likely every single way in which the game would be horrendously botched. Perhaps it was a defense mechanism by my own brain, that if I envisioned such a gut-wrenching loss enough times, the real thing wouldn’t sting as much if it truly did happen.

But maybe I didn’t know this team as well as I thought I did, as they did the furthest thing from botching the game in the second half-- they actually won. They did make life more difficult than it needed to be by inviting Iranian pressure in the final third almost at will, but the team showed a resilience the likes of which an entire generation of American soccer fans have never seen, and held on for a 1-0 victory to book their ticket to the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup.


The USMNT beat Iran in a must-win game on Tuesday to advance to the knockout stages of the World Cup. Image from: Ricardo Mazalan/AP.

Iran, despite their opening 6-2 thumping at the hands of England, are no pushovers on the pitch. They lack a wealth of starlets playing in Europe’s top leagues, yes, but throughout the past two World Cups they have played an organized and savvy brand of soccer capable at times of frustrating even the globe’s elite teams and grinding out a result. Add in the overboiling geopolitical implications of the game, and this moment could have been too big for an extremely young American team. Maybe it should have been. And yet, here we are, preparing for a mouthwatering Round of 16 showdown with the Netherlands.

With a match upcoming against a team that almost objectively boasts more talent than ours, naturally the next wave of cynicism is approaching amongst the Yanks’ faithful. Do we really have a chance against the Dutch, one of the most storied teams in the history of the World Cup? Let’s discuss what we’ve seen from the Americans so far at this tournament, and how they match up with the Netherlands.



The biggest talking point regarding the USMNT right now is the health of star player Christian Pulisic, and for good reason. Pulisic, the country’s most high-profile men’s soccer star, came up huge last game with the game-winning goal against Iran, but whilst scoring the goal took a hit to, uh, a painful area (but not that area!). He himself has said that he expects to be healthy for Saturday’s match, but should he be unable to go, this team takes a huge blow. Behind Pulisic are some extremely talented attacking options that could replace him in a pinch -- both Brenden Aaronson or the seldom-used Gio Reyna are comfortable on the left flank -- but Pulisic brings a pedigree and, quite frankly, a clutch gene that is rather irreplaceable.

Pulisic, for both club and country, has seemed to always step up in the biggest moments. For Chelsea, he most notably notched a goal and assist in a Champions League Semi-Final triumph over Real Madrid and also scored in an F.A. Cup Final against Arsenal, and for the USMNT all he’s done is score the winning goal against Mexico in both the Nations League final and in World Cup qualifying, as well as assist the team’s opening goal against Wales and score the game-winner against Iran.

He’s a big-game player. You can’t really teach that.


Christian Pulisic has delivered in crucial moments multiple times throughout his career. Image from: John Dorton/ISI Photos.

Pulisic also brings a level of quality that elevates the team and forces defenses to clue in on him when he has the ball, which naturally allows more pockets of space for players like Tim Weah to exploit. There’s a reason why he’s consistently one of the most fouled players on the planet, and his presence alone arguably changes how defenses have to play the USMNT in a material way. If he can’t go, however, the expectation is that coach Gregg Berhalter will roll with Aaronson on the opposite wing of Weah with Reyna coming off the bench, which would still be a fine option but would require another hero to step up and deliver.

From a tactics standpoint, the only real hot-button issue with Berhalter’s initial lineups at this tournament has been his insistence on using a target-man #9 up front, either in the form of Josh Sargent or Haji Wright -- neither of whom have registered a goal or assist so far -- rather than a less-conventional setup with either Weah up front or with Pulisic or Reyna as a false 9. I, however, am beginning to change my tune after watching Sargent’s quality of play in the Iran game.

Sargent’s hold-up play was a real factor against Iran; he was seemingly everywhere in the attacking half, showing great energy on the press and dropping deeper to start attacks when needed. His map of touches during the game backs this up, too:


Josh Sargent’s touch map in the game against Iran. Image from: CBS Sports via Twenty3.

He hasn’t scored a goal at the World Cup, sure, but then again neither did Olivier Giroud in France’s campaign in 2018, and yet he was still an instrumental part in their eventual triumph to lift the trophy. Sargent fits with Berhalter’s system, and his involvement in the impressive high press that the team has employed has been key. At this point it’s too hard to justify taking him out of the starting XI, so I’d like to again see a front three of Pulisic, Sargent, and Weah against the Netherlands-- provided everyone is healthy. Sargent himself also took a knock toward the end of the Iran game, and his prognosis is a shade less optimistic than Pulisic’s, with Berhalter saying, “I think with Christian, we're hopeful. I think with [Sargent] a little less so. But we'll see.”

If Sargent is unfit for the Round of 16 clash, then it starts to get interesting. The logical choice is for Wright to slot in at the 9, but the aforementioned strategy of starting Weah at striker with Pulisic and Aaronson or Reyna on the wings would probably allow Berhalter to simply put the most talent on the field possible. It’s tough to adjust a system on the fly like that, but it may be worthwhile to try Weah’s speed up the middle to fluster an underperforming Dutch back line, at least for part of the game. I would imagine Wright would still get the start in that case, but should he prove ineffective, a gambit with Weah up front has potential to turn the game on its head.

The true strength of the team has quite clearly been the midfield trio of Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah, and Weston McKennie. In my World Cup primer article, I effused about the immense raw talent of the trio and the wonderful balance that their different styles of play creates and expected that group to be the engine that drives the team to results. Even I could have never imagined that they would be this good this quickly.


Yunus Musah (far left) and Tyler Adams (far right) have been key cogs for the USMNT at the World Cup. Image from: Xinhua/Sipa USA.

Quite simply, Tyler Adams has been playing like one of the best holding midfielders in the world at this tournament, and should he put forth another strong game against the Netherlands he could be in line for a major move to a top European club. If you’ve watched any of the Yanks’ games and thought to yourself that Adams just seems to be everywhere, you’re spot on. According to FIFA’s technical report from the USA-Iran game, Adams covered more than eight miles in total throughout the game, and per USMNTOnly on Twitter he’s covered the most distance of any player at the tournament so far. Add in the fact that he’s also played every possible minute of the USMNT’s three matches, and his work rate is just unfathomable.

He’s doing more than just cardio, though; he’s been expertly winning defensive duels, distributing the ball quickly and accurately out of pressure, and even helping to spark attacks, like the one that resulted in Pulisic’s magnificent goal against Iran:


After receiving the ball from Antonee Robinson, Adams decisively finds McKennie in acres of space who plays an absolutely gorgeous ball that Sergiño Dest can head down towards Pulisic for the goal. It’s honestly one of the most well-worked goals I’ve ever seen the USMNT score, and it all starts with that midfield engine. A total of 11 passes were played en route to the goal, shown in the chart below. Avid soccer fans will know how rare a goal created with this kind of methodical build-up can be, and the fact that this American squad is capable of it is a great sign moving forward.



And on another note-- Adams’ poise and leadership since being voted team captain has been outstanding. At just 23 years old, Adams is a real driving force in the locker room, and speaks with purpose and intelligence in press conferences, too.

The way that Adams, Musah, and McKennie complement each other also allows Berhalter some freedom to tinker with the midfield setup depending on how the opposition is lined up. Per The Washington Post, the midfield has been arranged mostly in a 4-3-3 with Adams in the hole, but at times has molded into a 4-4-2 formation with Musah and Adams in the middle and McKennie outside, like in the crucial draw with England:


The USMNT’s three midfield setups, per The Washington Post.

Per FIFA’s post-match report, the “MMA” midfield of Musah, McKennie, and Adams completed line-breaking passes at elite rates of 85%, 83%, and 88%, respectively. This talented trio will face a tough test against the Netherlands on Saturday with Frenkie de Jong, one of the world’s best, in the opposing midfield. de Jong, however, has been hot-and-cold this tournament and lacks a consistent running mate in their two-man midfield setup, so if the Americans can close him down and limit his ability to create chances going forward, it could be absolutely vital in a victory.

For a quick note about goalkeeping-- at this point, I would trust Matt Turner with my life. He has been good for the USMNT consistently since breaking through to the starting XI, but he’s really saved his best stuff for this World Cup. Perhaps it’s due to his transfer to Arsenal in the Premier League, but his one prior deficiency of distribution and quality with the ball at his feet has all but evaporated. Now along with his world-class shot-stopping abilities we see a confident all-around goalkeeper, something that should see him ascend rapidly to become a hot commodity in the club soccer stage.


GK Matt Turner has put together a phenomenal World Cup campaign for the USA. Image from: MLSSoccer.com.

In terms of talent, the only cause for concern I have is with the back line. Specifically, with the center-back alongside the wonderful Tim Ream, who at age 35 is playing some of his career-best ball at this tournament. Walker Zimmermann started with Ream for the US’ first two matches, but after giving away a silly and costly penalty against Wales and struggling mightily with his passing against England, he was dropped in favor of Cameron Carter-Vickers. To Berhalter’s credit, the choice made sense and did play dividends from a ball-distribution standpoint; Carter-Vickers completed all ten of his line-breaking pass attempts against Iran, whereas Zimmermann often looked lost when the ball was at his feet.

The defense was rather shaky against the Iranians, however, especially in the second half when Berhalter instructed the team to mold into a five-in-the-back formation and drop deep to invite and absorb pressure. There was logic in that decision, but one could argue the USMNT was lucky Iran didn’t slot home one of their many chances in the second half to tie the game and sink our World Cup dreams, so Berhalter’s choices in how he manages the defense in-game will be crucial. As for who starts alongside Ream against the Netherlands? It’s honestly a toss-up. Zimmermann does often play as if he’s never kicked a round object before in his life, but has good defensive instincts and a better chemistry with Ream than Carter-Vickers does, as well as more experience on the international stage in general. I lean narrowly toward Carter-Vickers due to his ball-playing abilities but I would not fault Berhalter if he returns Zimmermann to the starting lineup.

I would, however, fault Berhalter if he continues to bungle his choices of substitutes in crucial spots. Shaq Moore has been largely a disaster off the bench in relief of the incredible Sergiño Dest, and considering how fantastic Dest was against Iran the fact Moore even came on for him at all was appalling. Still, if Berhalter believes benching Dest late in games for a fresher body is a key ploy, there are better options that he could, and should, opt for (justice for Joe Scally!). Further, I’ve warmed up to the idea of Gio Reyna coming off the bench given how dynamic the midfield and the attack have been without him, but his lack of minutes so far at the tournament has been disappointing. I’d like to see him get an extended run against the Netherlands should we be chasing the game and needing some creativity going forward.


Gio Reyna has yet to play significant minutes at the World Cup. Image from: Stu Forster/Getty Images.

As for our opponents, it’s no secret that the Netherlands are one of the world’s best teams. Ranked 8th in the FIFA Men’s Rankings coming into the World Cup, they claim players such as the previously-mentioned de Jong, one of the globe’s best center-backs in Virgil van Dijk, and lethal attacking options like Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, and especially Cody Gakpo.

Gakpo has, without doubt, been the Oranje’s best player in Qatar, scoring a goal in each of their games and seeming to drive all of their best action going forward. At just 23, Gakpo is already playing like one of the game’s most devastating wingers and will surely be in line for a massive transfer away from PSV Eindhoven following the conclusion of the World Cup. Containing him will be a tall order for the Americans, and may very well decide the game. Gakpo prefers his right foot but is capable of being deployed on either wing as well as centrally, like he was against Senegal.

Should he line up on the right wing, as he has done for the majority of this tournament, Robinson and Ream’s chemistry from playing together at the club level should come in handy, as if one gets pulled out of position and allows Gakpo space on the left side of the defense, the other can provide cover. Still, maintaining a disciplined line and strong positioning will be critical, as Gakpo can still be a provider to a player like Depay on the other side.


Cody Gakpo will be the player to watch for the Netherlands on Saturday. Image from: Sportskeeda.

Also of note is that Louis van Gaal’s Netherlands side have lined up with three center-backs in all of their World Cup games which, with van Dijk in the center of it all, can be a chore to break down. Wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Daley Blind are balanced players capable of leading a charge going forward as well as sitting back and cutting out passing lanes. Berhalter and the front three will certainly have their work cut out for them to try to exploit that back line.

Still, one can’t help but feel like the Dutch have been a little underwhelming so far. Although they did pick up seven points and emerged as group winners, they’ve looked vulnerable on defense at times -- most notably being outplayed by Ecuador for nearly the entire match in a nervy 1-1 draw -- and especially up the middle, against all odds. In theory, a back-three helmed by van Dijk, Nathan Aké, and either Matthijs de Ligt or Jurrien Timber is a luxury that should afford some flexibility to put more numbers in the attacking half, but that hasn’t been quite the case. van Dijk has been sitting deep and inviting pressure, perhaps too much so, and Aké looked vulnerable in their final group stage match against Qatar. Taking the game to the opponents and attacking straight up the middle could pay dividends.



The Netherlands are supposed to be the better side, but with a potentially shaky back line and a midfield battle that favors the US, if our defense can find a way to slow down a red-hot Gakpo, there is a very real chance that we can win this game. Seriously.

Also working in America’s favor is that all the pressure will be on the opposing team. The most successful international squad to never have won a World Cup, the Oranje have everything to prove after missing out on the 2018 edition of the tournament in an even more shocking fashion than the USA and after a disappointing Round of 16 exit at the European Championships last year at the hands of the Czech Republic. All the expectations are on them-- the young, vibrant USMNT is almost playing with nothing to lose at this point. And that should be a dangerous thing to the Dutch.

It’s a new dawn for American men's soccer on the world stage, no matter the result against the Dutch. What I’ve seen from this team has made me so proud, it’s rather difficult to put into words, despite my best efforts. Gone are the days where I worry about which drink I should order to numb the pains this team may inflict deep into my heart-- instead, I’m thinking about the drink that would be best fit for a lavish celebration. Because win or lose on Saturday, that’s exactly what this squad has earned. ■

Comments

  1. Excellent analysis of USMNT and the swot of the Dutch team. Well written and now look forward to this exciting KO game

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment