Regardless of whatever you think about the National Football League, you really have to tip your cap to their marketing team for their long-term success. Over the years, they’ve turned a regular sport into an American institution and a near-synonym for a day of the week. And they do it all while hardly even operating for the majority of the calendar year. How did we let this happen? It’s agonizing.
Seriously, our favorite teams only play 16 games (or 17, starting with this season) lasting just about four months of the year, or five if you’re lucky. That’s not a lot! This is especially true when you compare this to other major sports leagues. The Major League Baseball regular season runs from late March through September with teams playing 162 games apiece, and the season continues into October with its playoffs. The NBA regular season generally runs from October through April, with teams playing 82 games each, and the playoffs spill all the way into mid-June. European soccer leagues usually run from late August all the way through May.
As you can see, we’re really getting the short end of the stick here. So what gives? It turns out that, counterintuitively, the painfully long offseason period -- which, on the bright side allows the players to get some well-deserved rest after putting their bodies through what is probably the equivalent of a lifetime of car crashes over the course of a season -- really just builds the fan intrigue rather than losing our interest entirely.
All of this is to say, when that first Sunday slate of NFL games finally arrives, boy is it magical. There’s simply nothing like clearing your whole schedule, sitting on the couch all day, and just watching the spectacle. A Panthers vs. Jets snoozefest? Count me in. Broncos vs. Giants? Sure, why not. And when the day is finally over and the withdrawal symptoms begin to hit again is when the overreactions begin.
“Has Sam Darnold revitalized his career in Carolina?”
“Will Aaron Rodgers quit by Week 4 to host ‘Jeopardy!’?”
...
“Are the Texans Super Bowl Contenders?”
Logically, it makes no sense to put so much stock into Week 1 performances; for one, this would make Sammy Watkins better than Jerry Rice and Randy Moss combined. But the return of football is all about listening to our hearts, not our heads. In that spirit, let’s take a dive into some overreactions from the first weekend of the season.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are Back:
The Dallas QB will win Comeback Player of the Year and lead his team to a playoff berth
Image From: CBS Sports
If you are a Cowboys fan: firstly, I’m sorry about the last 25 years. Sounds like a rough time. But on the bright side, there was lots to be excited about from Thursday’s game, despite the loss! The defense, at times, at least resembled NFL-caliber talent and not eleven children in their first year of Pop Warner trying to figure out what their coach meant by “zone defense”, as it was for much of last season. They went down early and could have folded, but instead they hung with the reigning Super Bowl champions for the entirety of the game. Amari Cooper looked once again like perhaps the most surgical route-runner in the league, and benefited greatly from the presence of CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup drawing attention from defenders.
But most importantly, Dak Prescott looked like Dak Prescott again.
It’s no secret that this Dallas team goes as far as #4 goes, and in Tampa Bay he showed that he still has the talent to give them a shot at going to the postseason. No, he wasn’t nearly as mobile as we’re used to. No, his arm didn’t look 100%. But mix those factors in with the fact that they could not get a run game going to save their lives, and that they were playing likely the scariest defensive line in football sans Zack Martin, and his performance was truly remarkable.
When you have to throw 58 times, that’s usually not a good thing. All Dak did was turn those 57 pass attempts into a 72% completion rate, 400 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 101.4 passer rating, which would be even better if not for an unfortunate interception on a perfectly thrown ball. He did all this with some limited mobility, and a constant need to get the ball out quickly.
Oh, and having Vita Vea running at you surely doesn’t help matters either.
Dak’s calmness under pressure is a major step forward in his progression as an NFL quarterback, and this coupled with the sharp accuracy he showed on Thursday is more than enough to keep the Cowboys in games, or outright win them, before his game-changing athleticism returns in greater capacity. When that happens, and if they can finally unlock Ezekiel Elliott in the run game again, this may be the best offense in the league. In that case, all the defense needs to be is league average for guys to be serious playoff threats.
Image from: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports
However, there are still some long-term concerns that linger for me. Is Ezekiel Elliott really the same runner as before? Can Dak and other key players stay healthy? How badly will Mike McCarthy botch big moments this season? Most crucially, can Dallas consistently beat quality teams or win close games?
I think there’s a couple truly plausible paths to the playoffs-- they could either get the job done and win the division (easier), or hope that multiple NFC West teams struggle or that the Saints are more flash than substance (harder). Neither are guaranteed, but I’m suddenly feeling a lot more confident about their chances to play January football, especially with how uninspiring Washington looked on Sunday.
Confidence: 6.5/10
DeVonta Smith will win Rookie of the Year
The 160-pound wide receiver will beat out all five quarterbacks to win the award
Image from: Todd Kirkland, Getty Images
This is by no means an indictment on any of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the draft. It’s just the third time that’s ever happened, which indicates an incredibly talented batch of signal-callers, and they have all shown great flashes in preseason and in their limited regular-season snaps as well. However, in each quarterback’s case there is a very real possibility that they don’t put up the monster numbers necessary to take home the silverware.
In Trevor Lawrence’s case, a poor offensive line and coaching staff may have him losing quite a lot of games and throwing bad interceptions, like he did against the Texans. Though he had some amazing throws and still ended up throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, Lawrence had some extremely questionable moments with footwork and with forcing throws. However, at the end of the day, this is an award that has tended to skew quarterback-heavy in recent years, and a pretty-decent season from Lawrence may end up being enough to win the award.
Zach Wilson’s story is similar-- he’s immensely talented and will need to throw quite a lot, but often for bad reasons. The Week 1 injury to Mekhi Becton, the Jets’ franchise left tackle, is also a massive hindrance for Wilson’s rookie year expectations. Just like with Lawrence, if Wilson puts up flashy stats, regardless of whether they come in garbage time or not, he’ll still have a good shot of winning the honors.
I believe Trey Lance and Justin Fields will hit the ground running when they take over the job-- but when that will happen is up in the air, especially in Lance’s case. Kyle Shanahan tends not to be the model of transparency with the public, so it’s really hard to tell if and when Trey will make an appearance any time soon.
The fifth quarterback of the class, Mac Jones, is intriguing. I believe he is in a good position to play winning football: the defense is retooled once again, he’s got two solid tight ends to make his life easier over the middle, and he’s got maybe the best coaching in the league. I think the Patriots will have a good football season as a team, and contend for a Wild Card spot, but I don’t think Mac Jones will put up monster numbers, which will make it really hard to seriously contend for the Rookie of the Year award, when considering the stiff competition he’s facing.
DeVonta Smith, in my mind, will no doubt have a fantastic rookie season. There was plenty of pre-draft talk (mostly negative) about the wideout’s weight, as he clocks in at just around 160 pounds, but it really, truly doesn’t matter if he’s so damn good at the line of scrimmage that you just can’t touch him. Sure enough, Smith did channel his inner MC Hammer and used his footwork, route-running savvy, and speed to get open on numerous occasions. He finished the game with 6 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown.
Image From: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports
As Smith said himself, he’s a football player-- not a bodybuilder. And in Week 1, he showed he’s a pretty darn good football player. Yes, the Falcons aren’t exactly an elite defense, but it was mighty impressive nonetheless.
Due to sheer talent, I think Smith can come close to a Justin-Jefferson-level rookie season if key pieces on the offense can stay healthy around him, and if Jalen Hurts keeps slinging it like he did on Sunday. This, by default, would give him fairly decent odds to take home the trophy, but as I mentioned previously, young quarterbacks are truly the darlings of the league. No matter how well the “Slim Reaper” plays, he’ll need some help by way of subpar play from the other quarterbacks to win the award. Their situations make this possible, but not necessarily likely.
Confidence: 4.5/10
Urban Meyer is One-And-Done as an NFL Coach
The former Ohio State HC will continue to struggle both on and off the field with the Jaguars
Image from: USA Today
It’s been just a few months in Urban Meyer’s maiden voyage as an NFL head coach, but the early returns are quite ugly. On the field, Jacksonville looks not much more inspiring on offense, despite adding Trevor Lawrence and Marvin Jones Jr., and retaining DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and James Robinson. That’s too talented of a QB and skill positions group to look as sluggish as they did for as long as they have. Defensively, the Jaguars got toasted by Tyrod Taylor and a fairly bare offensive skill group. It’s ugly.
Worse, Meyer doesn’t even seem to be doing himself any favors off the field. His hiring of former Iowa strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle raised all sorts of eyebrows, as Doyle was fresh off of numerous racism and mistreatment allegations from former players. There was absolutely no need for this kind of publicity, and I find it hard to believe that Doyle is so incredibly good at his job that he was worth the hire despite his character concerns.
The longtime Ohio State head coach also just does not seem like he is being a great influence in the locker room in general. Look up his name right now, and likely all you will see is headlines like these:
Perhaps this is just the media circus doing his thing. For how bad it looks, it still is extremely early, and much can change in a flash in this league. But it does look bad. Really bad. The only thing that could end up reflecting well on Meyer and potentially saving his job is if rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence ends up having a transcendent rookie season. Would it necessarily be fair to keep Meyer on in that case, even if he continues to rub everyone in the organization the wrong way? Considering Anthony Lynn still got the boot from the Chargers’ brass last season despite Justin Herbert’s record-breaking rookie season, I’d say no, but this is the only possible scenario in my mind that Meyer would last past this season.
Confidence: 8/10
The Packers Will Implode and Miss the Playoffs Entirely
Green Bay’s ugly 38-3 loss at the hands of the Saints is not an outlier, but an omen
Image from: New York Post
If there was one story to define the past offseason in the National Football League, it was the story of Aaron Rodgers and his future. Would he force a trade to the Broncos? Would he sit out the whole season in protest? Would he straight-up retire, perhaps to become the new permanent host of ‘Jeopardy!’ ? In the end, Rodgers ended up staying in Green Bay (albeit with no love lost between him and the Packers’ front office) and running it back for what he and his teammates have called the “last dance”.
But in the Packers’ case, this “last dance” isn’t a run at a 6th championship to cap off a second three-peat. It’s a run to not go down as perhaps the biggest long-term waste of quarterback play and talent in the history of the NFL. Yes, the Packers did get one Super Bowl out of Aaron Rodgers, but since then the returns have been immensely underwhelming for how legendary Rodgers’ career has been. It’s actually quite a shame, honestly.
With that in mind, I had the Packers as serious NFC contenders this season, fueled by pure Aaron Rodgers spite (something I never want to be on the receiving end of). The Packers got to open their “last dance” season with a great opportunity for an opening-day win against a New Orleans team still adjusting to the retirement of franchise legend Drew Brees. On top of this, a home game for the Saints turned into a neutral ground affair due to the impact of Hurricane Ida. With all of these factors in play, all the Packers did was get absolutely walloped 38-3.
38-3!!!
It’s perhaps the ugliest loss I’ve ever seen from a Rodgers-led Packers team. Rodgers’ passer rating from the game was so bad, it would literally have been better if he threw the ball into the dirt on every play. He was missing reads and was sluggish in the pocket like we aren’t used to seeing. It was painful to watch.
Image From: Sam Greenwood, Getty Images
So what does this mean for Matt LaFleur’s team? Are they really this bad? With a tough out-of-division schedule which includes showdowns with the 49ers, Steelers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Ravens, and Browns, will they struggle to even make the playoffs?
Well, it does help matters that after Week 1, their division’s standings look like this:
Yes, the Packers’ schedule does look brutal. But the NFC North does not look like one of the tougher divisions in the league this year, and because of that I do still think that, even if the Packers never figure things out and don’t come close to the level they played at last year, they still have a solid shot at making the playoffs by winning their division. Still, I’d bet they do figure things out sooner rather than later.
Plus, that aforementioned brutal schedule for the Pack is pretty much just as brutal for the rest of their divisional foes:
This team didn’t just turn into a duck overnight. It’s still immensely talented on both sides of the ball, and when starting left tackle David Bakhtiari returns from injury this should give them an even greater boost. Most importantly, however, I just don’t buy Aaron Rodgers falling off a cliff. He’ll get right, and so will this team, but Super Bowl contention should (rightfully) be questioned by fans.
Confidence: 3/10
Confidence that Aaron Rodgers stays with the Packers past this season: -1/10
The Seahawks Have Finally Figured Out Their Offense for Good
Seattle’s revamped offense makes them real Super Bowl contenders (for real this time)
Image from: The Athletic
Well, this sounds familiar doesn’t it?
If the Seahawks’ tepid second half of the 2020 season and their unceremonious playoff exit to an injured Jared Goff made you think that this offense was incapable of sustaining elite production, I couldn’t blame you. Watching Week 9 and onwards last season for the Seahawks was like watching a car crash in slow motion; it was ridiculous, painful, and all the while impossible to peel your eyes away from.
Lest you forget, however, how that offense started out in 2020:
The first 4 weeks of the Russell-Wilson-led offense was like watching a well-oiled machine fire on all cylinders. It was mean, explosive, and could beat you in all sorts of ways. Then, the interceptions started. After throwing only 3 picks in the Seahawks’ first 5 games (all wins), Wilson tossed 7 interceptions in his next 4 games, many of them ugly and uncharacteristic, and Seattle lost three of those games.
After that stretch, which was perhaps the worst of Wilson’s illustrious career thus far, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer did the unthinkable. They took the ball out of his hands.
Look, I get it. He had a really rough few games. But this is still Russell Wilson we’re talking about-- you build your offense around him, you don’t play around him like he’s Drew Lock. After this decision to make the offense mind-numbingly run-centric, Wilson’s pass yards per game plummeted, and so did the team’s total yards per game. There were bad, bad losses, like the one to the Giants which was perhaps the worst game with Russell Wilson at QB that I’ve ever seen. Though Seattle did shake that embarrassment and rattle off four wins in their last four games to make the playoffs, they largely weren’t convincing in those wins, and they were quickly a first-round exit in the postseason.
The way their season ended was the most idiotic part of this story, however. Undrafted rookie quarterback and recent LinkedIn user John Wolford was the starting QB for the Rams in the wake of Jared Goff’s thumb injury. Shortly into the game, Wolford got concussed on a bad helmet-to-helmet hit by Jamal Adams, and in came the mostly one-handed Jared Goff. What should have been best-case scenario quickly turned into a nightmare for the most predictable offense I’ve ever seen, and an inability to stop Cam Akers in the running game, and the Seahawks lost 30-20 to Los Angeles, at home, no less.
Image from: Ted S. Warren, AP Photo
Perhaps, however, there was a silver lining to that tragedy; Schottenheimer was fired, and Russell Wilson’s preferred candidate, Shane Waldron (who, coincidentally, worked for the Rams last season) was hired in his place. Waldon was expected to bring a smart offense built around quick passing to keep Wilson upright, which was one of his main concerns over the offseason, while still being able to run the ball efficiently and take deep shots when the defense presented an opportunity.
What we saw in Indianapolis was exactly that.
Wilson threw three beautiful touchdowns in the first half of the game, in which he posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He finished the contest 18-of-23 for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the Seahawks’ early lead never looked in doubt, thanks to a pass rush which made Carson Wentz’ day a living hell. Tyler Lockett totalled 100 yards in on four catches, cashing in on two long touchdown plays in the process. DK Metcalf was largely bottled up, but still ended with a touchdown of his own. Chris Carson ran for 91 yards on 5.7 yards per carry (with a bad fumble, but let’s not talk about that for now). Even versatile rookie Dee Eskridge got involved on some fascinating gadget plays. It was glorious.
Most importantly, it looked smart.
Image from: USA Today
Though last year’s offensive explosion to open the season was must-see TV, it didn’t revolve around a mountain of creativity, and this soon showed when the passing game ran out of ideas, with Schottenheimer unable (or unwilling?) to adjust. Seattle’s win over Indianapolis showcased quite a great bit of creativity, and with Shane Waldron coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree, he’s much more likely to be able to adjust and improve his offense as time goes on, or at least that’s the thought.
Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I’m really quite impressed with what I saw from Mr. Unlimited and the Seahawks offense. Add to this the fact that Seattle’s pass rush looked downright terrifying, and this team has the makings of an actual contender. There are still some valid concerns; the secondary, specifically the cornerbacks, still don’t instill a lot of confidence, and just one injury on the offensive line has the potential to have the entire thing come crumbling down. But I’m still confident in this team, as it stands.
Confidence: 8/10
Honorable Mentions
A list of some more bite-sized overreactions and analysis from Week 1
The Rams Will Go Back to the Super Bowl:
The Super Bowl, for any team is a tall ask, no matter how good you are. Any number of things can go wrong-- the Packers, for example, looked well on their way to Super Bowl 55 until Kevin King had other ideas. However, everything seemed to go right for the Rams on Sunday. New starting quarterback Matthew Stafford looks like he already has the offensive playbook mastered. The defense didn’t miss a beat after losing their previous defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, to the Chargers. Getting through the Buccaneers will be tough for anyone in the NFC, but Los Angeles played as good of a football game as you could ever ask for, on both sides of the ball. Just by the nature of how volatile this league can be, I can’t be extremely confident in them making the big game, but I’m certainly much more bullish on them than I was before.
Confidence: 4.5/10 (this is good!)
The Titans Will Miss the Playoffs:
The Titans had one of the worst pass-rushing units in the league last season, didn’t do much to upgrade it, and promptly got obliterated by mobile quarterback extraordinaire Kyler Murray. Also, the offense looked markedly less smart following the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to the Falcons head coaching gig. There’s just so much talent on the offense that they could figure it out, but the Colts are no pushovers in the AFC South, despite their loss on Sunday. This is a much more real possibility than we could have imagined.
Confidence: 5.5/10
Kyler Murray Will Win MVP:
Murray looked like an absolute wizard on Sunday, escaping pressure like nobody else in the league can, bar Lamar Jackson, and making awesome throws into tight windows or off his back foot. It seemed like he was just toying with Tennessee, doing backyard football things in a real NFL game. He may have had a real MVP case last year if he hadn’t gotten a shoulder injury midway through the season, so I buy this as a possibility. However, he’ll need to prove he can play at this level against defenses far better than the Titans’, and crucially, Kliff Kingsbury needs to not get in his own way and derail this offense at an inopportune time. That may be easier said than done. I need to see some more before I lay down a bet.
Confidence: 4/10
Justin Fields Will Start by Week 4:
Andy Dalton was given the starting job because he’s the veteran of the QB group in Chicago, and will allegedly play smart, veteran football and keep the Bears competitive until Justin Fields is ready to take over. Instead, Dalton was the one making rookie mistakes on Sunday. In my mind, Justin Fields is the most ready-now prospect in this quarterback class, outside of Trevor Lawrence, and he’s closer to Lawrence than you might think. Dalton has a bounce-back opportunity next week against the Bengals, but should Chicago get throttled by Cleveland in the following game, Week 4 vs. the Lions could be a great time for Fields to take over. I can see this happening.
Confidence: 8/10
Jalen Hurts is the Eagles’ Franchise QB:
I love the guy, and not just because he’s on my fantasy team. I’ve always believed in his sky-high football IQ, awesome leadership, and lethal athleticism. I think he showed really strong flashes last season, in spite of the strange way his season ended, and I’m honestly not quite sure where the negative narrative against him ever came from. I understand it was a soft matchup, but Hurts looked very, very sharp against Atlanta on Sunday, completing 77.1% (!!) of his passes for 264 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 126.4 passer rating. However, Philadelphia is a notoriously fickle sports city, and when they latch on to a narrative, they really have a hard time letting it go. The Eagles still aren’t a good overall football team, and will likely lose a lot this season, and if that happens Hurts may be made a scapegoat so the Eagles can draft a new QB in the first round. I believe in the talent, but not the organization, to let this happen.
Confidence: 4/10
The Giants Move On From Daniel Jones After This Year
I never want to wish failure on a well-meaning player in the NFL. I’m more than happy being wrong about quarterbacks, unlike some analysts-- for instance, I thought guys like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert wouldn’t pan out, but as they’ve turned into veritable supernovas they’ve made fans out of me. Sometimes, though, I am right about things (shocking, I know); Jared Goff didn’t completely pan out in Los Angeles, Mitchell Trubisky was a waste of draft capital in Chicago, Blake Bortles could never elevate the Jaguars, and I really wasn’t a fan of any of those quarterbacks coming out of college. I had a similar perception of Daniel Jones when he played at Duke-- sure, he had great physical tools, but he never convinced me with his accuracy, decision-making, or ball security. Sadly, those same concerns I had from his college days are continuing to rear their ugly heads. Across the 26 starts of his first two seasons, Jones threw 22 interceptions, and fumbled the ball 29 times, losing 17 of them. Nothing about what he showed against Denver this past weekend showed that he’s addressed any of his major concerns. I think patience is starting to run thin among fans and the organization itself, and I don’t see him making a big enough leap this season to wow them. But should he prove me hopelessly, embarrassingly wrong, I’ll smile and tip my cap to the lad. That’s how it’s done, Bill Polian.
Confidence: 7/10
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